Independent retail/consumer analyst & journalist. Director of research company ConsumerCast.
Joined March 2012
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The retail recovery genuinely under way since the start of 2025 has been stopped in its tracks by rocketing petrol prices. Even seasonally-adjusted, excluding the effect of losing Good Friday from the April figures, and ex fuel, sales were up just 1.1% on 2025.
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Extra budget for petrol seems to have pulled money away from people's pre-summer wardrobes as well as general merchandise. Health & beauty boomed, possibly indicating a recessionary outlook for consumers, with a "lipstick effect".
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"Better than expected" @ONS retail sales in March, apparently. For those of us unable to read a trend literally shouting its presence in everyone's face for at least the past year, perhaps.
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Health & beauty and online leading the charge.
Slow growth in electrical and furniture perhaps an indicator of consumer caution on big ticket, reflecting concern about economic situation and property market.
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So setting aside the volatile and rather meaningless month on month comps of @ONS, it turns out that yes, there is a strengthening retail recovery going into 2026. Happy days!
Spend on home going great guns. Massive online/non-store growth looks a bit ๐คจ though
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"Surprise" growth in December @ONS retail sales, you say?
Er, no. Totally expected, more like.
Adjusting for Black Friday bump to Nov, Dec was just more of the same: steady recovery.
๐๏ธ๐ช๐ ๐๐ฅผ๐ & online booming
Fading ๐ effect indicates recession mode consumption over
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Ruth Curtice, Resolution Foundation. "There are early & encouraging signs of a mild zombie apocalypse where higher interest rates & minimum wages have combined to kill off struggling firms & leave the door open for new more productive ones to replace them"
๐ฎAppalling comment...
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...from a former Treasury offical who has apparently never run a business in her life and is now applauding the collapse of people's livelihoods. This is an insult to businesswomen/men across the UK and their hard working employees.
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19 Dec 2025
Forget what the @ONS is saying about falling retail sales. In the real ๐ robust recovery continues:
- Up 2.8% even adjusted for Black Friday falling in Nov reporting period
- Non-foods 4.9% on same basis
- Food flatlining as shoppers swerve inflation
- โก๏ธ ๐๐๐๏ธ๐บ all booming
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19 Dec 2025
Including Black Friday - biggest boost for electricals, dept/variety stores and non-store
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21 Nov 2025
No @ONS retail sales didn't "fall" in October ๐
- Slightly slower โฌ๏ธ vs LY
- "holding back" for Black Friday happens every year
- 2-speed recovery - 2 yr basis: Rapid growth in non-food, esp ๐กvs Food
So consumers aren't "nervous". They're p'ed off with food prices. That's it๐คทโโ๏ธ
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29 Oct 2025
More evidence of the ongoing fashion recovery, with @nextofficial UK sales beating guidance significantly (3Q 5.4% vs 1.9% forecast) and a ยฃ30m upgrade to full year profit projection (ยฃ1,135m)
"Favourable weather conditions and competitor disruption"
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