Strip away the spin and look at the numbers: in the local elections, Reform took 50% of the vote in the Makerfield wards that went to the polls, Labour just 23%.
In 2024 Labour held this seat by 5,399 – now Burnham is clinging on by a few points in private and public polling.
The “red wall” down here isn’t solid – it’s already cracked.
Reform doesn’t need a miracle. It just needs turnout.