Institutional research on the physical build-out of autonomous mobility. Real estate, power, capital, and regulation across every U.S. jurisdiction.

Joined March 2026
71 Photos and videos
Data-center growth is forcing PJM to accelerate power supply. FERC approved a fast track for up to 20 generation projects. Each needs state backing to expedite siting and must be online within three years. Interconnection can move faster. Permitting decides what actually gets built.
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Waymo is starting to price access to scarce fleet capacity. That's a real shift from proving the technology works to managing utilization and rider segmentation.
Waymo has introduced a new $29.99/month invite-only membership program called Waymo Premier for their top riders. Here's what you get: • Priority Pickups: Prioritized matching • Ride Savings: Earn 10% Waymo Cash back on every trip, and even more during busy times. • Early Access: Will be among the first to experience Waymo in new cities as they expand • Flexible Cancellations: Up to five free cancellations per month. Waymo Premier will be initially offered to select riders in San Francisco, LA, and Phoenix, and scale from there.
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Tesla’s Austin robotaxi fleet is still measured in the dozens. In Nevada, the company is already seeking permission to operate up to 5,000 vehicles across Clark County, including Las Vegas airport coverage. At that scale, land, power, staging and airport ops become the scaling bottleneck. nta.nv.gov/uploadedFiles/nta…

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Waymo bought Apple’s old proving ground in Wittmann, Arizona. $220 million. 5,500 acres. The sale was recorded in Maricopa County on June 5. Apple paid $125 million for the same site in 2021. That's a 76% higher sale price on the same dirt. AV testing land finally has a real comp.
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Tesla filed last week for a private 56-stall robotaxi charging hub half a mile from downtown San Antonio. The application names Tesla, but property records still point to a Rockspring entity that listed the parcel for sale and then quietly pulled it. That reads like a deal in motion. Depots like this draw 4-12 megawatts. govtech.com/transportation/t…
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A nuclear unit with a signed 20-year Microsoft contract could not deliver full power until 2030. The blocker was the PJM queue, not the reactor. On June 1 FERC let Constellation move 760 MW of rights off a retiring gas plant. Robotaxi depots are large loads in the same queue. utilitydive.com/news/constel…
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Waymo's latest expansion is a good reminder: "how many cities?" is starting to matter less than "how much usable coverage?" 1,400 sq mi across 11 cities is a density signal. For forecasting, though, live-market growth is not new-market resolution. radarautonomy.com/forecasts
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Uber’s Munich robotaxi plan is interesting because Uber is not trying to own the whole stack. Uber brings the riders and dispatch. Autobrains brings the driving software. Nvidia brings the compute. The automaker has not been named yet. That is very different from Waymo, which built most of the system itself and validates it market by market. Munich is the test of whether Uber can stitch the pieces together instead of building every layer in-house. If that works, the bottleneck is not just the AV model. It is getting the right vehicle, regulatory approval, and operating domain to line up in the same city.
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Texas just gave the AV market something it rarely gets: a public baseline. Under the new TxDMV framework, companies operating commercial automated vehicles in Texas now have to maintain state authorization. The first registry numbers show how many autonomous vehicles each company has registered in the state. Waymo leads with 577. Avride is second at 317. Nuro, Tesla, and Zoox are still much smaller by registered fleet count. That does not tell us who is generating the most rides, revenue hours, or daily active vehicles. But it does move the conversation away from launch headlines and toward measurable deployment. The next scoreboard to keep track of involves utilization.
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What is X consensus on when self-driving cars will have over 50% market share? I would say 2030-2032 personally, due to exponential growth and the many obvious advantages. What would you say and why?
0% 2028-2030
0% 2030-2032
0% 2032-2034
0% 2035
0 votes • Final results
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Waymo introduced Ojai today, its new Zeekr-built robotaxi running the 6th-gen Driver. Select riders in San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Phoenix will get access first. The timing is what makes this worth watching. In April, an empty Waymo drove into floodwater in San Antonio and ended up in Salado Creek, which led to a 3,791-unit ADS recall. Atlanta later paused after another empty Waymo stopped in floodwater, and freeway rides also paused while Waymo worked through construction-zone behavior. None of this changes Waymo’s position as the category leader. It does show where the next phase of robotaxi scale gets harder. The question is no longer just how many cities or vehicles Waymo can add. It is how consistently the service can stay online when the road network gets messy.
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Waymo is mapping Northern Virginia before Virginia has a commercial AV framework. The company told Alexandria it would begin manual mapping on May 20, using Jaguar I-PACEs driven by trained safety specialists. Arlington is next. SB 670 would create the autonomous operation license for commercial fully autonomous vehicles. It passed the Senate 35-4, then was carried over to 2027 in House Transportation. Waymo says mapping to robotaxi service usually takes 12 to 18 months. Virginia’s legal pathway is at least one session behind. The map is moving before the market.
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Texas starts enforcing its new commercial AV rules on May 28. Any company running driverless vehicles in Texas to move passengers or property as part of a commercial enterprise must have active TxDMV authorization. The application covers the basics: traffic-law compliance, recording device, federal-law compliance, minimal risk condition, title and registration, insurance, and an emergency-response plan filed with DPS. Personal-use AVs are exempt. Before the next Texas launch headline, the question is simple: who is actually authorized to operate commercially?
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Tesla FSD 14.3.3 is getting a serious real-world stress test. Three Canadians are attempting a 3,700-mile coast-to-coast drive across Canada, starting from Horseshoe Bay near Vancouver. Day 1: 814 miles to Medicine Hat, Alberta. This is exciting!
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Radar Autonomy retweeted
CHICAGO: Another unbadged @robotaxi Model Y was in the lot (XFY-3875). This car had the rear camera sprayer exclusive to @robotaxi and Cybercabs. First time I’ve seen one of the these vehicles with a Texas plate, the two I saw last week had Illinois plates. 8 days left for autonomous rideshare to be legalized in Illinois with @RepKamBuckner’s HB4663. Hopefully @waymo’s and @robotaxi early validation rollout means the bill will pass.
5/18/2026 Chicago validation @robotaxi fleet was all lined up today. 2 previously documented plates along what I assume are also Robotaxi’s (I couldn’t see the rear washer). The 5 new black Model Y’s have very similar Illinois license plate sequencing as the Ultra Red Robotaxi’s. • FW 19012 Ultra Red (previously spotted last week with rear washers) • FW 19013 Ultra Red (previously spotted last week with rear washers) • FW 19101 Black • FW 19103 Black • FW 19105 Black • FW 19107 Black • FW 19109 Black
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Radar Autonomy retweeted
Tesla’s robotaxi rollout is starting to sound less like a future prediction and more like a countdown. No driver. No safety monitor. Already running in multiple Texas cities. Now Elon says widespread U.S. rollout could happen before year-end. The craziest part? Most people still haven’t emotionally processed that the car is already driving itself around real cities. @Tesla @elonmusk
Tesla AI Vision
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Robotaxi isn't a car story. It's the first real physical agent swarm. Millions of nodes, billions of sim miles, one orchestration layer routing them in real time. Transport labor compresses overnight. The moat shows up on roads, not benchmarks. #Robotaxi
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