To me, the current situation is very similar to February 2025: pressure, rigid deadlines, ultimatums for Ukraine as a "plan to end the war." If we look at the 28 point plan that appeared in the media as a whole, it shows very clearly who's paying and who's collecting dividends. Ukraine is paying with our territory, sovereignty and security; Russia, large business and corporations are winning. This plan is bad for: ◾️Ukraine. 🔹️ Territories: Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk regions are de-facto acknowledged as Russian (including by the US), the front line in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions is essentially fixed on the current positions. A "buffer zone" is created in Donetsk region. Ukraine must retreat, and Russia formally does not enter the "buffer zone", but the territory is considered Russian. Formal recognition of these territories as Russian is not just an attack on international law. It's a precedent for the next power grabs of territories all over the world. There's also the issue of people living on these territories - what's going to happen with them? Russia conducts a severe anti-Ukrainian policy on the territories it occupies, indoctrinating children and forcing men to join the Russian army. 🔹️Sovereignty and security of Ukraine: The plan allegedly states that: ▪️Ukraine will remain neutral; ▪️Ukraine is directly forbidden from joining NATO (that would be stated in both the Constitution of Ukraine and NATO's documents); ▪️External governance via the "Peace Council", headed by the US President; ▪️The Ukrainian Defense Forces would be limited to 600,000 people. Any external limitation on the size of a country's army are de-facto its disarmament and an invitation for a new war in a few years. The number of people and the structure of the army cannot be externally dictated to a country that is living through a full-scale war of aggression. With an aggressive and militarized Russia nearby this is not about peace, this is about an intentional vulnerability. ▪️"Ukraine will get reliable security guarantees" - what are they exactly, who provides them and what is the format? Is it a new Budapest Memorandum or something tougher and more specific? Without concrete details and mechanisms, this is a nice title, not a defense instrument. 🔹️Russia's responsibility: A part of Russia's frozen assets would be allocated to restore Ukraine, but a large part of them would be directed at developing Russia itself through joint American-Russian foundations. So the aggressor would get investments and access to new projects instead of punishment for Russia's numerous war crimes. 🔹️Amnesty and the war crimes issue: Joint amnesty for all sides and withdrawing any issues means that war criminals will get a chance to remain unpunished. De-facto, the issue of responsibility would be closed altogether and all future investigations would not take place. Again, what kind of precedent does this set for those who are planning the next war? 🔹️Fighting "Nazism": The point "all Nazi ideology and activity must be rejected and forbidden" without any clarifications fits really well with the Russian rhetoric of "denazifying Ukraine". If there isn't a separate point about Nazism, militarism and aggression within Russia itself, it looks like Ukraine is blamed for starting the war. ◾️"A dialogue will be conducted between Russia and NATO with the US as intermediaries" - does the US remain a part of NATO or does it take a role "above" the Alliance? If the US is not speaking as one of the Allies but as a separate intermediary, this moves part of the decisions beyond NATO's collective procedures. 🔹️Economic dependence: ▪️The United States (and partly the EU) would have priority access to ports, logistics, resources, IT, aerospace technologies; ▪️A special regulatory regime for foreign investors; ▪️External management of a large part of finances. This will make a sort of semi-protectorate of Ukraine and a market for restoration for large corporations. This clashes directly with Ukraine's sovereignty. ◾️The EU: ▪️The key deal is de-facto made between the United States and Russia; Europe pays and plays junior partner; ▪️Forceful change of borders is legalized; a precedent is set - if you wage a war for long enough and are ready to bargain, you can get the territories you got through force; ▪️European countries are supposed to finance the restoration of Ukraine but the United States will have all main rights and profits. This is a serious setback for the European security system: that would be acknowledging that rules can be rewritten by force. ◾️Other post-Soviet states and the international law: A very dangerous precedent is set: aggression and occupation will eventually lead to partial recognition of land grabs instead of sanctions and isolation, in exchange for "peace" and business deals. This is a direct signal to all revisionist players: the price for taking foreign territories by force is not that high. ◾️Beneficiaries: 🔷️Russia would receive: ▪️Legalization of Russian occupation: Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk regions, part of Ukraine's south are recognized as Russia. ▪️Sanctions are gradually removed, Russia returns "to normal": up to returning to the G8. ▪️Launch of American-Russian projects in energy, resources, Arctic, technologies - a boost of sorts, with conditions being the most beneficial to the Kremlin. ▪️Inside Russia, this is easily presented as the war "paying off" and the West seeing that Russia's demands were valid. 🔷The United States (and large corporations first and foremost) would receive: ▪️"Compensation" for "security guarantees"; ▪️Up to 50% of profits from managing the parts of Russia's frozen assets invested into Ukraine; ▪️Priority access to Ukrainian gas infrastructure, resources, ports, IT and aerospace industries; ▪️Participation in joint ventures with Russia. The Unites States do not provide direct military and financial aid to Ukraine but keep up its influence through economy and formal "security guarantees." ⬛️Conclusions: This preliminary plan is de-facto an ultimatum that: ▪️Carries out the interests of Russia, partly the interests of the US and large businesses; ▪️Is in direct confrontation with Ukraine's key interests as the victim of the aggression; ▪️Undermines the foundations of European and global security. ❗️The document cannot be accepted in its current state. It needs to be significantly changed, taking into consideration Ukraine's territorial integrity, without external dictate on the army, with real security guarantees and a responsibility mechanism for war crimes. ‼️The most important part - we're discussing the points of a peace plan without Russia that doesn't care for it, continues its threats and shows no readiness for peace.