A frontal system approaches the region, allowing for increased rain chances Sunday-Tuesday. Widespread 1-3" of rain is expected with locally higher amounts possible. This frontal system could interact with a broad area of low pressure, which is being monitored for development.
ALT An infographic from the National Weather Service Houston/Galveston titled "Tropical Weather Outlook: Monitoring A Disturbance," updated at 1 PM on June 12, 2026. A "Formation Chance: 20%" badge is highlighted in the top right.
Key Messages:
A tropical disturbance has a low (20%) chance of development over the Bay of Campeche/western Gulf this weekend.
A broad area of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and storms over the Bay of Campeche.
The system will move inland over Mexico this weekend but could re-emerge over the Gulf on Tuesday and Wednesday. Conditions are only marginally conducive for development.
Residents and visitors are advised to monitor the forecast at weather.gov/houston.
Map:
A Seven-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook from the National Hurricane Center shows a yellow shaded area with an "X" in the Bay of Campeche and western Gulf of Mexico, indicating a low (<40%) formation chance.
ALT An infographic from the National Weather Service Houston/Galveston titled "Increasing Rain Chances Sunday Afternoon/Evening: Locally Heavy Rainfall Possible," updated June 12, 2026.
Key Messages: Scattered to widespread showers and storms are expected Sunday along a frontal boundary, with the best chances arriving in the early afternoon and continuing overnight.
Potential Impacts & Actions: Locally heavy rain, gusty winds, and minor flooding in areas with repeated storms. The public is advised to remain weather-aware.
Data Visualizations:
Map: An "Excessive Rainfall" map for Sunday, June 14, shows a Flash Flood Risk level of 2 (out of 4) across most of Southeast Texas, including Houston, College Station, and Columbus.
Table: A "Probability of Rain/Storms (%)" matrix lists over 20 cities. Rain chances spike drastically at 12 PM, 3 PM, and 6 PM, with many locations (like Bellville, Brenham, Katy, and The Woodlands) reaching an 80% peak probability.
ALT An infographic from the National Weather Service Houston/Galveston titled "Rain Continues, Chances Rise - Monday and Tuesday: Locally Heavy Rainfall Possible," updated June 12, 2026.
Key Messages: Rain and storms increase by Monday as a frontal boundary moves through and tropical moisture filters in. Estimated rainfall totals are 1 to 3 inches across most locations through Tuesday, with isolated higher amounts of 4 to 5 inches possible.
Potential Impacts & Actions: Locally heavy rain, gusty winds, frequent lightning, and minor flooding in areas with repeated storms. The public is advised to remain weather-aware.
Excessive Rainfall Outlook Maps:
Monday Map: Shows a yellow Flash Flood Risk level 2 (out of 4) covering central and coastal Southeast Texas (including Houston, Columbus, and Galveston), surrounded by a green level 1 risk.
Tuesday Map: The risk decreases, showing a green Flash Flood Risk level 1 confined to the southern and coastal half of the region.