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Alpine Macro @RealAlpineMacro

Alpine Macro is a leading independent global investment research and strategy firm.

Joined August 2019
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Stock Market Correction Ahead? The Chart shows numerous measures indicating complacency among equity investors. Is the market ripe for a correction, despite an excellent Q1 earnings season?
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If so, is it worth playing, or an opportunity to "buy the dips"? Will the Magnificent 7 Big Tech stocks continue to hog investor attention?
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Alpine Macro@RealAlpineMacro
31 May 2024
Despite the ECB set to kick off an easing cycle ahead of the Fed, the euro has been remarkably resilient. From a low of around 1.06 in mid-April, EUR/USD has gradually clawed higher to above 1.08. What explains the euro’s resilience and can it continue?
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A mixed earnings season & U.S. growth scare left analysts unenthusiastic about the industrials sector. However, secular tailwinds from themes including electrification and infrastructure raise interesting questions.
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Is the shakeout in the sector misguided? Is the cyclical process bottoming for some segments and about to inflect higher? What industry groups stand out in such a diverse sector?
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The recent slowing in wage gains, despite the U.S. jobless rate holding at low levels, suggests that the Phillips curve is moving back down to the pre-pandemic relationship.
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This reflects well-anchored inflation expectations and indicates that a 1970s wage-inflation spiral is not developing. What are the investment implications?
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Non-Agency CMBS has been on fire over the past quarter, providing 260 basis points of excess return year-to-date. We upgraded CMBS last December to overweight due to cheap valuation and excessive pessimism.
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Is there still more upside to be had in the CRE space, or should investors begin to temper their exuberance? Is the worst from the work-from home craze priced in or are there still looming risks in the office CRE space?
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How should investors position themselves in a CRE market with droves of structural and cyclical shifts simultaneously unfolding?
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Strong Dollar, Strong Commodities? The Chart shows that the dollar and commodity prices have generally moved together since 2021. This combination is extremely rare. At the same time, the dollar has moved in lockstep with U.S.-ROW interest rate spreads.
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Will these trends continue or will the traditional inverse correlation between the greenback and resource prices re-emerge?
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Recent data suggests U.S. inflation has yet to be fully tamed, which may prompt some investors wary of complacency to consider incorporating inflation protection into their portfolios.
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The question is, which assets truly earn their keep as inflation hedges? What is the most straightforward but effective strategy for proofing a portfolio against upside surprises? And does taking out inflation insurance inevitably come at a cost?
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Stock/Bond Correlation Turning Positive Again The Chart shows that stock and bond prices have again started to move together, rather than in opposite directions, as was the case in the first quarter.
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Does this mean a more dovish Fed will lead to an equity breakout? Or will sticky inflation cause a sustained correction in both stocks and bonds?
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Will what's worked stop working? Momentum is a feast or famine factor that has feasted since Fall, but cracks are forming. This isn't a Mega Tech story; investors have piled into sources of larger, profitable, growth across all equity segments.
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A shift in the macro backdrop could unwind the premium built up and prompt a rotation in leadership. How can investors prepare for the shift?
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With inflation down significantly from the peak, the Fed will be much more mindful of softer labor market conditions. As Powell said, the Fed is “prepared to respond to an unexpected weakening in the labor market.”
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Did the pendulum of market expectations swing too far in the direction of a hawkish Fed? Are Treasuries attractive?
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