Best-selling author, world-renowned speculator, and libertarian philosopher.
Joined April 2018
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Jun 11
. @intlmandotcom: When you look at SpaceX, AI companies, and the broader wave of tech listings, do you see echoes of the late-1990s dot-com boom?
Doug Casey: Yes, and not just the dot-com boom. The 1920s stock market boom was loaded with the tech companies of the time—car manufacturers. There were hundreds of small automotive companies. They all went bust, leaving only GM, Ford, and Stellantis. FWIW, today they’re all managed by women, DEI hires, and people who hate cars. It’s the circle of hi-tech life.
RCA, Radio Corporation of America, was the Nvidia of its day, going 200-1 in the 20’s. The gigantic tech boom of the 60’s featured scores of meme stocks with suffixes like -onics or -ex. The public bought anything with a name that signaled technology. Pretty much like the late 1990s, when they bought anything ending in .com. We’re seeing a replay now, but with AI.
The trillions of dollars that the US government has created, via the Fed, have to go somewhere. The $2 trillion deficits the US government is running aren’t being sold to the public. They’re mostly bought by the Federal Reserve, which credits the US government with those dollars in commercial banks. Then the commercial banks lend and multiply them via the fractional reserve system. Tons of that newly created money goes into the stock market. Funny money is mostly responsible for the stock market boom, with its all-time high 40-1 P/E for the S&P.
The AI bubble, the center of the current stock market mania, may wind up as one of history’s great busts, like the Tulip Mania of 1637, the Mississippi and South Seas Bubbles of 1720, and the Roaring 20’s, among others. The fallout of manias and bubbles is always ugly.
There are hundreds of data centers being built, some of them with buildings that are scores of acres in size, full of servers, storage, and cooling equipment. Several will need 8 or 9 gigawatts of power, each. I’m not sure most people know that the typical nuclear power plant is about one gigawatt and costs $5-10 billion. The numbers are actually insane.
This is certainly the largest bubble in history, by an order of magnitude. Hundreds of billions and even trillions are being allocated to it—and that’s within the context of the Bubble Economy, which has been ongoing for a decade. I’ll wager most of these buildings, and their contents, will be write-offs. Strange artifacts that may yet be America’s answer to Egypt’s pyramids.
And what will be computed in these buildings? I’ll warrant it’s not about breakthroughs in science, technology, or mathematics. A lot will inevitably be used by the elite to exploit and control the plebs.
So what am I doing?
The average guy is completely uninvolved with mining and energy stocks. In 1980, the S&P 500 was about 30% in oil stocks. Today, it’s 4%, which is strange since oil is more important and its availability is more uncertain than ever. Mining stocks are barely a rounding error. Even though gold is around $4,300, the public is oblivious. One proof of that is that the premium on gold coins is close to its lowest level in history, almost nonexistent.
I like to be in places where few other people are. Even if the market melts down and resource stocks come down with it, I don’t think they’ll be hurt nearly as much as the average stock. I prefer being in a quiet backwater of the market. Not a beach that’s cheek by jowl with mobs of day trippers trying to outguess each other, hoping to make a buck before an oncoming tsunami washes them all away.
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Jun 11
Full article here:
Doug Casey on the SpaceX IPO, the AI Super Bubble, and the Bells Ringing at the Top of the Market
internationalman.com/article…
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Doug Casey retweeted
If AI is going to wipe out a large portion of white-collar jobs, that represents a meaningful amount of tax revenue the US government will lose. That means it will need to issue even more debt to cover its growing expenses, compounding the debt spiral it is now clearly in.
Further, what will happen to the mortgages, car loans, credit card debt, and student loans of the white-collar workers AI replaces?
We expect many of them will become delinquent or default, and that will cause major losses for the financial institutions that underwrote the debt. These financial stocks can be expected to drop once the market realizes many of the loans they made are not going to be repaid.
And when financial stocks start to fall, it will affect retirement accounts and other portfolios invested in them.
It is not hard to imagine how AI could collapse this financial house of cards.
This is why the Fed and other central banks are so concerned about “deflation” in general, and AI in particular.
The defining feature of the financial and monetary system is that it requires ever-increasing debt and currency debasement to sustain itself. Inflation is a structural requirement to keep the system running.
That is why you see nonsensical things like the Fed’s totally arbitrary 2% inflation target. Why not target 0%? The obvious, unspoken answer is that the system could not tolerate it.
In short, deflation is an existential threat to a debt-ridden economy and fiat currency system.
If even sub-2% inflation—as measured by rigged CPI statistics—is enough to scare central bankers (really central planners), imagine what the most deflationary technology in human history could do. It could hit this overleveraged, overfinancialized system like a sledgehammer.
We think there is no doubt AI has the potential to trigger a debt crisis that could collapse the whole system.
So, do you think the Fed will sit back, do nothing, and watch the whole house of cards come crashing down, or will it create an enormous amount of inflation in a desperate attempt to hold the system together?
We think it is clear they will choose the latter.
It is important to clarify something.
While there is a limit to the amount of deflation that can result from increased productivity and efficiency, there is no limit to the amount of inflation central banks can create.
So inflation will win at the end of the day.
In short, fiat inflates faster than tech can lower costs.
The question is not whether they will print. We think it is clear they will. The question is when will they print, and which assets will win when that happens?
That is the real question investors need to answer now.
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Doug Casey retweeted
Thomas Massie’s Defeat and the Coming Fiscal Crisis
internationalman.com/article…
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I believe the gap between natural deflation from AI and other technology, and forced inflation from central banks, will produce the greatest wealth transfer in history.
Wealth is not going to vanish.
It is simply going to change hands…
From those who do not understand what is happening… to those who do.
In fact, this historic transfer of wealth is already underway, and for most people, it could be financially devastating.
Consider that the US recently experienced the most severe bout of inflation in 40 years.
That means the government has been printing so much money that even the most revolutionary technologies of recent years—the internet, smartphones, social media, advanced computing, and more—have not been enough to bring down the cost of goods and services in the face of rampant currency debasement.
With AI, I believe we are going to see this dynamic on steroids.
Most people are going to be squeezed in a tightening vice—on one side by the most deflationary technology in human history, and on the other by the most severe currency debasement of their lifetimes.
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Doug Casey retweeted
The key variable isn’t whether AI is impressive or useful (it is).
The key variable is whether AI becomes a true profit engine or remains a subsidized cost center dressed up in a hoodie and a TED talk.
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Doug Casey retweeted
No matter what happens, we are confident the Iran war will be a major tailwind for gold.
Here is an overview of how we see the conflict unfolding and its major financial implications.
1. The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s most important energy corridor.
2. Iran now has undisputed control over Hormuz.
3. Stripping Iran of that control would require a successful full-scale ground invasion of Iran, a country roughly 40 times the size of Switzerland.
4. A full-scale ground invasion is unlikely to happen, and even if it somehow does, it is unlikely to succeed.
5. Iran is therefore likely to retain control over Hormuz.
6. The US is likely to suffer a historic strategic defeat, no matter how it tries to spin it.
7. The US was already on the verge of a debt crisis before the Iran war.
8. The direct and indirect effects of the Iran war are likely to worsen that debt crisis.
9. The US government will likely debase the currency in an attempt to deal with its worsening debt problems.
10. The US dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency is likely to be lost amid a debt crisis, rising inflation, and a major geopolitical defeat.
11. As a hard-money alternative to the dollar, gold is likely to be a primary beneficiary.
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Doug Casey retweeted
Fear-driven narratives are a poor guide for investors, while disciplined risk management, diversification, and focus on controllable probabilities offer a sounder path to returns and peace of mind.
Fear Is Not an Investment Strategy
internationalman.com/article…
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May 21
Once upon a time, America was a high-trust society. It now seems the ethos is to grab the money and run.
Americans were once encouraged to delay gratification, to put off consumption today in order to be more prosperous tomorrow. But with increasing currency debasement, who wants to wait?
In a high-inflation economy, everyone is forced to get rid of their fiat currency as fast as they can. They either wind up promiscuously consuming because there’s no way to get ahead.
So why not eat, drink, and be merry, for tomorrow we die anyway. Or gambling, even if they think they’re speculating. Or, if they’re especially ill-informed, they think they’re investing.
The transformation of the markets from a convenient way to raise capital for production into a type of casino is a warning sign. As is the participation of the masses through outfits like Robinhood, a broker that democratized gambling, disguising it as speculation or investing.
It’s a tip-off we’re probably at a top in the broad market.
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May 21
Full article here:
Doug Casey on Why Young People Are Gambling to Get Ahead
internationalman.com/article…
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Doug Casey retweeted
The 10-year Treasury yield is perhaps the most important financial benchmark in the global fiat system, as it drives valuations and market trends worldwide. It is widely—and erroneously—regarded as the risk-free rate of return.
The 10-year Treasury yield can be thought of as a key barometer of the US dollar-based fiat system—a critical measure akin to its beating heart.
Bond yields move inversely to bond prices. When bond prices fall, bond yields rise.
A rising 10-year Treasury yield signals trouble for the US dollar because it means investors are selling Treasuries, which pushes up the US government’s borrowing costs. That is why the 10-year Treasury yield is a major pain point for the US government.
The 10-year Treasury yield was 3.97% when the war started. Now it is around 4.60%, an increase of roughly 63 basis points.
I expect the 10-year Treasury yield to keep climbing over the coming weeks and months—until it forces the Fed’s hand. At that point, the intervention will be sold as “stability,” but the mechanism will be familiar: suppress yields by debasing the currency.
At today’s debt levels, every 1 basis point increase in the government’s average borrowing cost adds roughly $3.9 billion in annual interest expense. So a 63 bps rise is not trivial—it translates to nearly $250 billion in additional yearly interest costs, materially widening a 2025 budget deficit that was already around $1.8 trillion.
Higher yields mean the US government must pay tens or even hundreds of billions more in interest on its debt. At the same time, the global economy faces even greater added costs because Treasury rates serve as the benchmark for borrowing worldwide.
That is not an insignificant move. However, given all the headwinds I have discussed, I suspect the 10-year Treasury yield is headed much higher because investors will demand higher yields to compensate for rising inflation. Further, if Hormuz remains closed, drastically higher oil prices are all but certain. Higher energy prices mean higher prices across the economy and higher official inflation rates, which means investors will demand still higher yields to compensate.
The problem is that interest on the federal debt is already over $1.2 trillion and is now the second-largest item in the budget. The US government cannot afford yields going much higher because the interest expense would push it toward bankruptcy.
I am not sure how—or even if—the US government can manage this situation. Something has to give, and we will not have to wait long to find out what.
The Iran war may prove to be more than another foreign policy disaster. It could be the trigger that exposes the fragility of the entire dollar-based financial system.
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Doug Casey retweeted
The UAE didn’t simply “leave” OPEC after nearly 60 years. It was bought out.
After the Strait of Hormuz crisis crushed revenues and drained dollar liquidity, Washington stepped in with swap lines—less a lifeline than a leash. These facilities keep Gulf allies liquid, discourage CNY oil settlement, and help prevent forced selling of U.S. Treasuries when America still needs buyers to fund its wars.
The market may read this as more oil production, but the bigger story is monetary control. Refineries have been hit, capacity is impaired, and the UAE is now more dependent on U.S. credit and security guarantees than ever.
The real war is not just in the Middle East. It is in central bank boardrooms. As currency blocs fracture and payment rails become weapons, neutral stores of value like gold and silver matter more than ever.
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Doug Casey retweeted
May 16
We're Living In The Age Of Consequences zerohedge.com/geopolitical/w…
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May 14
Taxes are destroyers of civilization and society.
They impoverish the average man.
They support welfare programs that anchor the lower classes at the bottom of society.
They underwrite a gigantic bureaucracy that serves only to raise costs and quash incentive.
They pay for public works programs (once called “pork barrel projects,” but now rechristened “infrastructure investment”) that are usually ten times more costly than their privately financed counterparts, whether needed or not.
They maintain programs that cause huge distortions in the economy (such as deposit insurance for banks).
And they foster a climate of fear and dishonesty.
The list of evils goes on.
But the simple truth is that anything needed or wanted by society would be provided by profit-seeking entrepreneurs, if only the tax collector would retire.
Protesting against taxes because they’re a costly or inefficient way of providing services, however, is in good measure futile. It’s like saying that the mugger shouldn’t rob you because there might be a better way for him to get what he wants.
How serious is the tax problem in the long run?
I believe it will become less, not more serious, despite the government’s increasingly high tax rates and draconian enforcement measures.
The major long-term trend of society is toward decentralization and smaller-scale organizations.
The US government will prove no more able to deal with a rapidly evolving economy than was the Soviet government.
More and more Americans will see the government as meaningless and irrelevant, as serving no useful purpose.
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Doug Casey retweeted
“The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; the second is war. Both bring a temporary prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunists.”
— Ernest Hemingway
Thanks to the fiat currency system, governments at war can tap into a nation’s savings by financing conflict through currency debasement.
Under a gold standard, governments had to have the gold or impose taxes if they wanted the funds to prosecute a war. When the gold ran out, the war stopped. But not in a fiat currency system. They can continue debasing the currency until they hyperinflate it.
That’s why there’s a simple equation you should sear into your memory:
War = Inflation
The historical pattern is clear.
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Doug Casey retweeted
The price of diesel fuel was about $3.55/gallon both a year ago and as of early January 2026, but has since soared by more than $2.00 per gallon to around $5.60 recently.
That’s a 56% rise in the cost of pumping goods and commodities through the arteries of the US economy.
On an annualized basis, the diesel fuel bill for the US truck fleet went from $155 billion per year to $250 billion per year at current oil prices.
The big question, of course, is through which channel these drastically higher fuel acquisition costs will be absorbed—in higher prices or reduced output?
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May 7
Prices for necessities—food, shelter, gasoline, medical care—are certain to go up much faster than his wages.
Warsh will find himself painted into a corner. He can either create trillions of new dollars to maintain the US government. Or fail to do so and invite a catastrophic deflation as America’s mountain of debt collapses upon itself.
I have no question that he’ll choose the first alternative.
In the past, the powers that be talked about the Fed “fine-tuning” the economy. That term is no longer used.
Everybody recognizes that unless the Fed prints up adequate money, “this sucker is going down,” as the Baby Bush once termed it during the 2008 financial crisis.
I suspect the next crisis will be much, much bigger.
I think the biggest risk to the average American is that, to finance itself, the government will require all pensions and 401(k)s to invest in a certain percentage of government debt.
That may hold the system together for a while, but at the expense of driving the final nails into the average American’s financial coffin.
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Full article here:
Doug Casey on the New Fed Chair and the Coming Inflation Wave
internationalman.com/article…
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Doug Casey retweeted
We are likely witnessing the end of US global dominance, much like the fall of the British Empire in the wake of the world wars and the 1956 Suez Canal Crisis, but significantly more consequential.
No matter what happens, the outcome of the Iran war will make it clear to the world that the emperor has no clothes.
Many people are unprepared for such a historic shift. But when you put all the pieces together, the Big Picture becomes clear.
Changes in the world order are rare, history-defining events—with massive implications, both geopolitical and financial.
We are living through one of those rare moments right now.
That’s why it’s critical to tune out the noise, cut through the propaganda, and understand the true geopolitical landscape.
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