Markets are for trading and the broader pursuit of price discovery and consensus valuation.
With that in mind, tomorrow is going to be a very exciting day. I'm open to the thrill of it, as every single prediction has been made and now we all get to see what happens.
Due to demand alone on day 1, I just can't see it doing much else besides going up, up, and away. Without a doubt though, as certain as sharks on the scent of blood in the water, the short sellers are going to be working this IPO and initial trading year (and of course well beyond) with unwavering commitment to their craft. They desperately want to see SpaceX trading at < $50 a share, because that is what the traditionalist viewpoint says it should be trading at based on the hard numbers (and even this figure is granting the most generous assumptions of future success). They view the IPO as a fundraising spectacle, not a fair market consensus. The price to them is beyond "priced for perfection."
It will be nothing short of an epic price war. A colossal stock market saga of unprecedented scale.
Obviously SpaceX has tremendous upside potential that is, in many ways, unquantifiable. This is the coveted space industrial myth made manifest. If this myth is going to become reality, SpaceX is perhaps the only organization on planet Earth that can make it happen.
What is a company truly worth that can effectively supply, service, and control the entire cis-lunar plane?
I don't really know how to quantify that in US dollars.
Furthermore, when SpaceX and Tesla inevitably merge, the combined IP of that corporate amalgamation is equally inconceivable.
I want to invest, and I will. It is the most exciting investment opportunity of our present times.
This IPO has me nervous though, especially when we hit certain vesting periods and insiders can realize paper gains. There's a lot of chop that needs to get out of the way, for a clearer picture of what this investment actually looks like beyond the hopeful, stargazed wonder of what it will all likely/hopefully be in 25, 50, 100 years from now, and how much of that growth curve can be effectively captured in my lifetime.
Good luck to everyone, and to all the new millionaires on the verge of being minted, congratulations! Truly.
I hope it is everything you want it to be, and beyond.