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Why RAFAEL LEÃO· Serie A 2025/26 · data: @twelve_football @WhoScored and UnderStat There's a version of Rafael Leão that fits Manchester United almost perfectly, and the data backs it more than the discourse admits. A left-sided transition weapon for a side built to win in transition. Here's the case. 🧵 Let me start with what he is: one of Serie A's best ball-carriers and hold-up forwards. #8/91 for box entries. #13 for ball runs and carries (xT). #10 for link-ups, #6 for aerial duels won. He drives the left channel and brings runners into the move. United under Carrick win with sub-45% possession and a relaxed press. They defend compact and break at speed. That system doesn't need a presser on the left - unless MC changes the system. What MC needs exactly is what Leão does best: carry, hold, release. He creates quality, not just volume. #14/91 for xG created, #18 for second assists. Pair him with a ST like Šeško through the middle and you have a left-side supply line feeding a striker who attacks space. The fit is real. Two things to be clear about, because the case is stronger when it's honest: His pressing is #67/91 — out of possession he's a passenger. And his finishing this season sits below xG (−0.56). You're buying the carry and the threat, not a clinical No.9. Context changes the price of those flaws. United's passive press (PPDA >10) means the pressing gap costs less here than at almost any top club. Build the structure around him — covering left-back, holding pivot — and the hole is managed. At €66m for a 26-year-old with this transition ceiling, the fee reflects the profile rather than the name. You're not paying for goals he doesn't score. You're paying for the chaos he creates carrying the ball into the box. So here's where I land: if United recruit Leão as a transition-and-carry specialist and build for it, he's one of the better-fitting forwards on the market for this specific system. Sign him for what he is, and the data says he works. Your call — would you take him at €66m? Similar to him Mika Godts - highly recommended! Profile card by @ScoutingStatsAI

Can Portugal Win the @FIFAWorldCup 2026 ? Portugal go into WC 2026 as one of the best attacking outfits in European qualifying. Their xPoints return says something a bit more complicated. The problem wasn't creation. I mean — why would it be, with Bruno, Vitinha, Bernardo and João Neves in there. It was conversion and conceding. Attack R. Martínez wants the ball. 72% possession, 84% field tilt. Structured passing, not direct (long ball % 9), carries barely factor (12% of box entries). 59% of possessions reach the final third. xT of 2.79, top end. Then it stalls — final-third-to-box only 26%, dead average. They live in good areas. The final pass lets them down. Volume's not the issue. 23 np shots, 6.5 high-opp shots a game, box touches into shots at 68%. What they didn't get was a finishing bonus. 2.83 npG from 2.92 npxG. Scored what they earned, not a goal more. Defence The soft spot. #15/54 — easily the weakest phase, miles off the #3 attack. Chances allowed? Fine. Opp npxG 0.85, #11/54. But goals conceded tell a different story: 1.17 off 0.85 xG. Teams scored 38% more than their chances were worth against Portugal. 11th-fewest chances allowed, 19th-fewest conceded — leaked eight places between the two. No rub of the green either way. The Press This bit's elite. PPDA 4.04, one of the most aggressive in qualifying. They hunt it. Defensive transition is the best thing on the card — #4/54. Lose the ball and you get nothing: opp xG within 10s of a recovery is 0.01. They give it away high (turnover line 70.81m), so you're countering from far out. Nothing comes of it. So why 14th in points? Highest xG of anyone in qualifying — #1/54. Finished 14th on points (2.17 p/g). Three things stack: Elite creation, finished to expectation. Nothing on top. Conceded more than they should have. Net it out: around −0.41 goals a game vs what xG expected. Points minus xPoints? #46/54. Only eight teams squeezed less out of their numbers. The variance that carries you on a deep run — Portugal banked none of it. Front or back. Can they win it? The press travels. So does the defensive transition. 4.04 PPDA and 0.01 opp post-recovery xG don't stop working against better teams. The back line nags at me. #15/54, plus a finish that gave them no cushion. Thin margin against the strikers waiting in 2026. High line, no insurance. So can they win it? The squad says contender. The xG says contender. The points said 14th. Something has to give — and which way it breaks is basically their whole tournament. Data provided by @twelve_football

Une fois c'est historique, deux fois c'est légendaire.

Carrick's United win on a compact mid-block — 2.67 Pts Per Game, PPDA 7.69. That system wins the ball back well. Then it stalls. The gap is the pass that turns a recovery into an attack. That's Fernandes's whole game. Strengths Progresses the ball 111 progressive passes at 4.01 per 90, plus 38 key passes. He is the player West Ham used to get the ball from their own half into the final third. Genuine passing quality Passing Quality across 1,600 passes at 85.1%. The xT maps put his best work centrally and in the left half-space, where he opens the pitch with the line-breaking ball. More defensive volume than expected 108 tackles, 33 interceptions and 182 recoveries — 6.58 recoveries per 90. For a player billed as a creator, he covers a lot of ground and wins it back at a reasonable rate. Weakness No box threat 3 goals and 2 assists from 35 shots, with very little inside the area. Whoever plays ahead of him has to supply the goals.

Crystal Palace, Champions of Europe ❤️💙

Elliot Anderson had the most: ⚽️ Touches ⚔️ Duels won 🤝 Possession won ✅ Successful passes 💥 Line breaking passes Of all Premier League midfielders this season 🥇

An incredible campaign for the @manutd captain 🫡 Dive into the numbers behind Bruno Fernandes' record-breaking season

Contribute in attack, strong in defence 💪 Nico O'Reilly can do it all