Reliable research replicates...you can bet on it!
Joined April 2019
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28 Feb 2022
Also, @michaelbg01 has nearly finished a manuscript on the preprint forecasts -- using only the surveys for clarity.
And we are collaborating with @replicats on correlates of good forecasting. (Expecting to mostly corroborate earlier work, but worth a check.)
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28 Feb 2022
@ReplicationMkts forecasters:
Now only six covid reprint prizes left to claim: DMS, mudiku, Poison, davison, r6XqxtYY1V, josephharvey6.
replicationmarkets.com/index…
ALT Screenshot of the 6 remaining winner usernames.
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21 Feb 2022
@ReplicationMkts
folks: Anyone know these forecasters? They haven't responded to our prize emails.
In other news, catch the Economist article on mainstream prediction markets: economist.com/finance-and-ec…
ALT DMS, mudiku, Poison, davison, r6XqxtYY1V, josephharvey6, KRH, reMarket:Subject888
14 Feb 2022
9 preprint market winners yet to claim your prize - please check your filters for email from support@replicationmarkets.com:
DMS
mudiku
Poison
davidoj
r6XqxtYY1V
josephharvey6
Troof_
KRH
reMarketSubject88
3 Feb 2022
Announcing COVID-19 Preprint Market Winners:
replicationmarkets.com/index…
We had 54 winners, with prizes from $16 to $1,269. Congratulations all, and thanks again to all forecasters. And to @FetzerFrFund for the prizes.
@ReplicationMkts
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3 Feb 2022
Announcing COVID-19 Preprint Market Winners:
replicationmarkets.com/index…
We had 54 winners, with prizes from $16 to $1,269. Congratulations all, and thanks again to all forecasters. And to @FetzerFrFund for the prizes.
@ReplicationMkts
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21 Jan 2022
@ReplicationMkts forecasters: We're resolving the COVID-19 *Preprint* markets. Have a look at proposed resolutions before we finalize prizes.
replicationmarkets.com/index…
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21 Jan 2022
These were the forecasts on future citation and publication for 400 popular COVID-19 preprints.
These prizes were funded by @FetzerFrFund, not DARPA SCORE. Survey prizes were paid in Nov. 2020. Markets had to wait for resolutions in Sep. 2021.
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20 Jan 2022
Resolving COVID-400 markets. Anyone have Journal Impact Factors (or similar) for:
* Communications Medicine
* Int'l J. Research in Medical Sciences
* J. of Rare Diseases and Orphan Drugs
* Lancet Microbe
* Lancet Regional Health - Europe
* The Innovation
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16 Nov 2021
Prizes, finally!
We are pleased at last to announce the *market* prizes for Replication Markets: 258 winners split $142K, with 121 questions resolving. (We are contacting the winners directly.)
replicationmarkets.com/index…
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16 Nov 2021
Congratulations to all winners. Special shout to our Top10, by username:
BradleyJBaker
meaning.mosaic.curtain
unipedal
mVranka
physwiz
mbulatay
sattuma
ejorgenson
CPM
Nokta
(See blog post for the full list.)
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16 Nov 2021
Thanks team! JacobsConnects, Harvard, Massey, UCSC, SSE, Gold Brand, and more!
Twitters: @pretzelsbaby @michaelbg01 @yangl1u @thatMikeBishop @bgoldfedder @DViganola @LyndaOvington @flxhlzmstr
More on our team page: replicationmarkets.com/index…
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12 Nov 2021
Almost prizes ... but not quite.
Rounds 1-11 are good, but co-pilot checks today found a slight discrepancy a Round 0 merge.
I'm sure it will be embarrassingly obvious on Monday.
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10 Nov 2021
Good news - we got extra resolutions from DARPA last week. About 100 regular 30 covid resolutions now.
Doing final prize calculations review today/tomorrow. On track for Friday prize announcement.
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27 Oct 2021
Progress on @ReplicationMkts prizes: Estimate ~126 winners in Rounds 1-10 in 66 replication experiments. Verifying, & doing R11 R0.
replicationmarkets.com/index…
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Replication Markets retweeted
Anyone have favorite references re: doing meta-analysis well?
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3 Dec 2020
More metascience from a replication forecaster!
Remember this post getting lots of retweets: fantasticanachronism.com/202… Well, @AlvaroDeMenard has a new #metascience essay I think is just as good even if it's not as provocative. fantasticanachronism.com/202…
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Replication Markets retweeted
This is crucial. So precisely how do we change these incentives? Pressure grant-makers and journal editors to create open-science requirements?
The biggest roadblock? As a junior scholar, I take on all the risk in doing this - loads of time and effort and potential critique - with virtually no reward. The incentive structure must change. Open science / open scholarship benefits everyone. Let's reward that work 🙏
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30 Nov 2020
If you'd like to get occasional invitations to participate in our research then sign-up here: replicationmarkets.com/index… Note that even current participants need to have opted-in.
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