Daily Market Commentary. Investing is hard, which is why it can make you rich. TheStreetPro, SharkInvesting, Michigan Law & Business. Not Investment Advice.

Joined June 2012
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The Best Time to Research a Stock? After You Buy It This seems counterintuitive, but let's consider what happens after you pull the trigger — and the cost of confirmation bias. pro.thestreet.com/market-com…
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It is surprising how many people think that taking a big chunk of money from @elonmusk will accomplish something positive. Do you really think if you gave a government entity billions of dollars to distribute it would do more good for the world than what Musk will produce with that capital? The problem is that the politicians are motivated by the power that the money gives them. They will direct it in a way to ensure that they stay in power. The government will continue to spend on stupid, unproductive thing and will do virtually nothing to fix the things that lead to poverty, etc. Musk will create far more economic growth than any government but the politicians can't control who will benefit and prosper and therefore they lose power.
Je vais partir du principe que tu es de bonne foi, parce que ton raisonnement est intuitif et que 90% des gens le partagent. Mais il repose sur trois erreurs factuelles, et ça vaut le coup de les regarder calmement. Erreur 1 : la fortune d'Elon n'est pas un tas d'argent. C'est de la propriété d'usines, de fusées et de satellites. "Prendre la moitié de sa tune", concrètement, ça veut dire forcer la vente de la moitié de SpaceX et Tesla. L'argent ne sort pas d'un coffre, il sort des entreprises elles-mêmes, qui passent sous contrôle de fonds étrangers ou d'États. Tu ne redistribues pas du cash, tu démantèles un outil de production. C'est la différence entre récolter des pommes et découper le pommier. Erreur 2 : "ça résout énormément de problèmes dans le monde". Cette expérience a déjà été tentée, en vrai. En 2021, le directeur du Programme Alimentaire Mondial de l'ONU a affirmé que 6 milliards de Musk pouvaient "résoudre la faim dans le monde". Réponse d'Elon : décrivez-moi exactement comment, comptabilité publique à l'appui, et je vends mes actions Tesla immédiatement. Le PAM a publié son plan. Verdict : ce n'était pas "résoudre la faim", c'était nourrir 42 millions de personnes pendant un an. Un an. Puis il faut re-payer, pour toujours. Le PAM avait d'ailleurs levé 8,4 milliards l'année précédente, et la faim était toujours là. Les ONG traitent les symptômes en boucle, jamais les causes, parce que leur financement dépend de l'existence du problème. Erreur 3, la plus importante : tu cherches ce qui sort vraiment les gens de la pauvreté. Bonne nouvelle, on a la réponse, et elle est massive. En 1990, 36% de l'humanité vivait dans l'extrême pauvreté. Aujourd'hui, moins de 9%. Plus d'un milliard de personnes sorties de la misère en 30 ans. Par quoi ? Pas par la charité ni par l'aide internationale (plus de 1 000 milliards versés à l'Afrique en 60 ans pour un résultat à peu près nul). Par l'ouverture des marchés, l'industrialisation, le commerce. La Chine seule a sorti 800 millions de personnes de la pauvreté en abandonnant le collectivisme, pas en taxant ses entrepreneurs. Donc fais le calcul complet. Option A : tu confisques 500 milliards, tu finances quelques années de programmes, l'argent est consommé, et tu as détruit la machine qui produisait les fusées, les voitures électriques et l'internet des zones rurales. Option B : tu laisses le meilleur allocateur de capital de sa génération réinvestir 100% de sa fortune dans des industries qui baissent les coûts pour tout le monde et emploient des centaines de milliers de personnes. L'option A soulage ta morale pendant 18 mois. L'option B sort des populations entières de la pauvreté pour toujours. La pauvreté ne se redistribue pas. Elle se résout par la création. C'est contre-intuitif, c'est frustrant, mais c'est ce que disent 200 ans de données.
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SpaceX Has a Solid Launch But Doesn’t Reach Orbit The next big market event will come from the Federal Reserve’s new chair. pro.thestreet.com/market-com…
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$ROKU Roku in talks about combining with U.S. media company, Bloomberg says Roku is in talks to sell itself, people with knowledge of the matter told Bloomberg's Michelle Davis, Ryan Gould and Dinesh Nair. The streaming video platform company has been in discussions with at least one U.S. media company about a potential combination, the people said. No final decisions have been made on a potential sale, and there's no certainty the deliberations will lead to a transaction, the report added.
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Initial $SPXC trades $150-$152
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Will SpaceX $SPCX trade below its $135 IPO price in the next six months
79% Yes
21% No
87 votes • Final results
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$SPCX Nasdaq Pres on CNBC says probably a few more hours til it opens
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It feels very cautious out there. Everyone is waiting to see what $SPCX does
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$SPCX will be quoted starting at 9.50 am ET and start trading at 10 am ET
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SpaceX and Iran Are Set to Squeeze a Skeptical Market Two big catalysts, one big question. Here are my thoughts and strategy for a notable market day. pro.thestreet.com/market-com…
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SpaceX IPO Grows Oversubscribed With Emotions High The market faces an interesting setup going into Elon Musk’s IPO. pro.thestreet.com/market-com…
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James DePorre retweeted
⚠️US households are ALL-IN on US equities: American households now hold a record ~48% of their financial assets in stocks. This exceeds the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble peak by 10 percentage points. This is all unfolding at a time when US stock market valuations are at the highest level since the Internet Boom peak. We know what happened next. Is history set to repeat itself?
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James DePorre retweeted
Peter Thiel is about to be up ~$49.4 Billion on his SpaceX $SPCX shares
PETER THIEL'S FOUNDERS FUND INVESTED $600 MILLION IN SPACEX $SPCX OVER 20 YEARS At the $135 IPO price, that stake is worth MORE THAN $50 BILLION That is an 83x return on their money. Founders Fund first started invested in SpaceX in 2008
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Morgan Stanley Deal Makes it a Good Time to Add to This Biotech Name A $23 million move by the small-cap concern has me looking to increase my position. pro.thestreet.com/trade-idea…
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One thing I like about this $XERS transaction is that Morgan Stanley ($MS) is the bank involved. Nice to have a top investment bank dealing with this little stock
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James DePorre retweeted
The Iranian regime will lose the zero-sum game it is playing. Any damage it inflicts on our allies in the Gulf will be paid for with funds extracted from Iranian Accounts. Any tolls paid to the Persian Gulf Strait Authority will be offset by funds extracted from their accounts. Every attack Iran launches will only deepen the economic and financial consequences it faces.
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$XERS I'll write up the details later on @thestreetpro about the $XERS deal. It is an interesting study in corporate financing. They are paying to reduce interest expense and are removing some future dilution. I like that they have the financial strength to do something like this.
$XERS. This looks like a nice move to improve eps. Xeris Biopharma announces private exchange of convertible notes Xeris Biopharma entered into separate, privately negotiated exchange agreements with certain holders of its 8.00% Convertible Senior Notes due 2028. Pursuant to the exchange agreements, Xeris has agreed, subject to customary closing conditions, to retire approximately $23M aggregate principal amount of the Notes for exchange consideration consisting of approximately $23M in cash and a number of shares of its common stock that will be determined based upon the volume-weighted average price per share of Xeris' common stock over a 21 trading day averaging period commencing on June 11. Assuming the per share volume-weighted average price of Xeris' common stock during each day of the averaging period is $6.71, Xeris expects to issue an aggregate of approximately 4.6M shares of common stock upon consummation of the exchanges. Following the closing of the exchanges, Xeris will have $10.5M in aggregate principal amount of the Notes outstanding. Morgan Stanley acted as placement agent to the Company in connection with the exchanges.
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$XERS. This looks like a nice move to improve eps. Xeris Biopharma announces private exchange of convertible notes Xeris Biopharma entered into separate, privately negotiated exchange agreements with certain holders of its 8.00% Convertible Senior Notes due 2028. Pursuant to the exchange agreements, Xeris has agreed, subject to customary closing conditions, to retire approximately $23M aggregate principal amount of the Notes for exchange consideration consisting of approximately $23M in cash and a number of shares of its common stock that will be determined based upon the volume-weighted average price per share of Xeris' common stock over a 21 trading day averaging period commencing on June 11. Assuming the per share volume-weighted average price of Xeris' common stock during each day of the averaging period is $6.71, Xeris expects to issue an aggregate of approximately 4.6M shares of common stock upon consummation of the exchanges. Following the closing of the exchanges, Xeris will have $10.5M in aggregate principal amount of the Notes outstanding. Morgan Stanley acted as placement agent to the Company in connection with the exchanges.
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