if you type long enough into the abyss, the abyss will type back
Joined August 2015
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It's more like 500 J-20s as of mid 2026, but the overall situation facing the IAF fighter fleet is still not ideal regardless.
Will you kindly wake up. New estimates say China already has approximately three hundred (300) J 20 stealth platforms in service. Quite besides stealthy drones. They have at least 2 active 6th gen aircraft in the air. No one said you give up on all existing 4th gen birds. But can you pls stopping missing the tree from the woods? Capability cannot be sacrificed at the altar of dogmatism.
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Jun 6
The other side of the problem of PRC space watching (and PLA watching too) is people taking projections of future projects and then exaggerating as if they are already in existence.
Detractors and boosters are both unhelpful to the discourse.
🇺🇸US: Look at Starship explode!
🇨🇳China: Hold my CZ-9 (16m fairing, makes Starship look like a baby rocket).
We turned 280,000 km² of desert into forest. Could’ve colonized Mars. Chose Earth.
Now we’re aiming straight at the stars!
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Jun 6
So, CZ-9 has broken containment.
Basics:
- SHLV, 2030-32 Y1?
- Common reusable capable 1st stage, atm 30x YF-215 (FFSC methalox 200 t)
- Roadmap for configs/variants, including a full reusable ala Starship
- 16m fairing should be viewed as one of many variants, not default
1/
Jun 5
New blueprints of Long March 9’s factory reveal that it will have a 16-meter diameter fairing! To show how massive that truly is, I have compared it to past, current, and future launch vehicles that are also huge in size.
I honestly do not see a reason why a rocket would ever need a fairing this large 😭
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Jun 6
Of course, before CZ-9, a few milestones are awaited
-Landing reuse of 1st stage in other rockets (many candidates to occur this year)
-YF-215 overall (other PRC 200 t FFSC methalox exist)
-CZ-9 relevant infra
-PRC fully committing to CZ-9 (more a formality at this stage)
5/
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Jun 6
Over time, CZ-9 has become better defined, more mature yet more ambitious in scope, though Y1 timeline hasn't greatly changed.
Naturally space projects inevitably see some delay (even PRC) -- but this is one to keep track of.
Just remember it's PRC space-watching.
/end
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Jun 5
Coming from a long term PLA-watching background going back a couple decades, it's jarring, seeing so many similar patterns play out in other tech/industry domains as they become more mainstream.
The arguments are almost always the same.
What an absurdly specific hill to die on
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Jun 4
I don't know if the proper F-47 (EMD onwards) will ultimately have canards, but it would certainly be the funniest outcome if it does.
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Jun 3
Even if we scale 09V's hull diameter with this mystery submarine (for illustration purposes), it is a fair bit shorter, meaning it probably isn't a 09V, but it also doesn't correspond to what a 10m diameter, 120m length submarine would look like...
I'm open to ideas.
Jun 3
At a glance, this hull doesn't look like a 120m length, 10m diameter sub.
Tbh it's similar to proportions of 09V (~110m length, ~12m diameter), when factoring in an obscured tail by the crane.
I wonder if this hull is 09V (sail shadow not visible due to angle of sun?).
To await.
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Jun 3
At a glance, this hull doesn't look like a 120m length, 10m diameter sub.
Tbh it's similar to proportions of 09V (~110m length, ~12m diameter), when factoring in an obscured tail by the crane.
I wonder if this hull is 09V (sail shadow not visible due to angle of sun?).
To await.
Jun 3
CSSC渤海造船 新型潜水艦の進水
5/29撮影の衛星画像。記事で取り上げられている120m級セイルレス新型潜水艦はこれのことだと思う。ただ、分解能の都合もあり、はじめ見たときはセイルレス船形とは分からなかった。潜水艦が進水したのは間違いないが、慎重な判断が必要だった
@SkyfiApp
@Satellogic
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Jun 3
Nice find.
Though the 12m diameter SSN launched in February this year, should overwhelmingly likely be 09V, that doesn't change imo
For 09V, its emergence and characteristics weren't a surprise (in the same way this one is).
Jun 3
**BREAKING** New Mystery Submarine Signals China’s Rapid Undersea Expansion 🇨🇳
navalnews.com/naval-news/202…
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Jun 2
PL-21 (and solid ramjet) isn't something the PLA are pursuing as a BVR solution.
There's a reason they've gone with advanced solid rocket motor variants
The image being cited goes back to the early 2010s and is out of date and misleading. Better for people to actively ignore it
Jun 2
The Chinese PL-21 is an ultra-long-range air-to-air missile designed primarily to target high-value assets like AWACS and refuelling tankers. It boasts an estimated operational range exceeding 200kilometers.
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Rick Joe retweeted
Jun 1
List of recent and upcoming new Chinese launch Vehicles as of June 2026.
Chinese launch companies organised 8 maiden launches in the past 6 months, and dozens more are planned over the next few years, this list gives an overview of the various current project.
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Jun 1
Add another to the list of PRC medium lifters with reusability in mind... and more to come.
No landing attempt for this one due to lack of suitable landing site.
Even the org which succeeds first in a landing won't remain special for long given how crowded the domain is in PRC.
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May 23
10/10 room clearing team, this is what peak performance looks like.
Via 沉默的山羊/wb
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May 19
We don't know the absolute drone command/control capability of J-20A, Su-57 or F-35 or F-22.
We can extrapolate J-20S is more capable than J-20/A and Su-57D is more capable than Su-57, but their existence actually doesn't tell us anything about relative capability to each other.
May 18
Russia and China fielding 2-seater 5th gen jets tells me they aren’t sure they can split that cognitive load effectively with AI, so they’re sticking with the bag-of-meat model.
The US, on the other hand, seems to be leaning further into human-AI teaming.
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May 16
"If the agreement is signed by early 2027 as currently envisaged, deliveries of the first fly-away aircraft are expected to begin from 2030 onwards"
By 2030, the PLA will likely near 1,000 5th gens in service -- some context for pondering trends of IAF air strategy wrt PLA.
May 14
IAF finalises Rafale RFP, sets stage for fighter production before Modi & chief AP Singh fly to France theprint.in/defence/iaf-fina… via @theprintindia
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