MCPS is officially moving the goalposts.
After their materially flawed "housing doesn’t equal students" data was publicly dismantled, they needed a new excuse to justify permanent school closures. So today, they pivoted.
In today's BOE meeting, MCPS specifically stated they are now forecasting massive enrollment drops based on live birth rate data. They presented this slide (Image 1), pointing to the 35,000 student crash of the 1970s "Baby Bust" to tell us what to expect as our new "normal."
The problem? The actual data doesn't back them up.
Look at the Maryland historical birth rates (Image 2). Yes, the 1970s saw a massive, undeniable cliff. But look at today's projections on the far right. The current birth rate trend is a shallow, gentle slope. It looks absolutely nothing like the historic bust they are using to justify their drastic forecasts.
We dismantled their housing data, and now their birth rate logic doesn't line up either. You cannot justify a 2026 school closure by comparing today's mild dip and COVID-19 year impact to a historical demographic crash. They are simply retrofitting bad data to support a predetermined conclusion.
We cannot allow MCPS to push permanent decisions using bad math, shifting narratives, and moving targets. When the stakes for our children are this high, we deserve transparent, mathematically sound leadership.
The vote is March 26.
@MCPS @Andrew_Friedson @CherylKagan @AdamPagnucco @pcmc1 @AdamVanGrack @fox5dc @nbcwashington