bitcoin:native is bouncing. Be careful with this one.
Last week Bitcoin touched the 200-week moving average near $60K and confirmed a lower low. The only time the 200-week MA broke in a bear market was 2022, when Bitcoin fell another 33% after tapping it.
⠀
The macro is not supportive right now.
Friday's jobs report came in at 172K vs 85K expected. A hot labor market gives Warsh zero justification to cut at his first FOMC on June 16-17. Markets priced that in fast. NASDAQ fell 4.5% in a single session, a 3.3 sigma event equivalent to 1 in every 2,300 trading days. VIX spiked 38%.
Strong jobs plus 3.8% CPI equals a Fed that cannot move. That is the ceiling Bitcoin is bouncing into right now.
⠀
On-chain, one signal stands out.
Bitcoin's realized price sits at ~$54K. In every previous bear market, price has touched or undercut that level before a real bottom formed. This cycle it hasn't happened yet.
⠀
Strategy sold 32 BTC last week and spooked the market. Then bought 1,550 BTC for $101M and disclosed $1B in cash reserves. Net buyer. The panic was misplaced.
⠀
Where does this go?
Bear market structure intact. Realized price untouched. Fed stuck. The most likely bottom zone is $45K to $55K, with a window of August to October.
Three things to watch this week: CPI, PPI, and SpaceX IPO Thursday (555M shares at $135, ~$75B raise that could drain liquidity from risk assets).
June 16 is the next real inflection point.
bitcoin:native update. It doesn't surprise me at all.