Joined December 2022
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Yesterday I was #16 Rising in Crypto on Substack. Today I woke up at #5. πŸ”₯ I started giving on-chain lessons for @diegospanevello community, then moved to CryptoQuant quicktakes, and earlier this year launched my own newsletter with weekly reports. To see it rising alongside people like @_Checkmatey_ , @DurdenBTC and with @IT_Tech_PL in the Top 100, is something I don't take lightly. I still have a small subscriber base. But if the work is climbing, someone out there finds value in it. That's enough to keep pushing. Honest reads, real data, real positioning. Every week. This is just getting started. 🀝
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Leo Ruga retweeted
Spot Bitcoin ETF flows are the cleanest demand gauge this cycle has. Right now they're telling an uncomfortable story. Through the May June leg down, the ETFs have been net sellers almost every single day another ~$214M walked out yesterday. No absorption bid. The institutions that powered the run aren't catching this knife. But here's the educational part, because flows are more useful than headlines: Back in Feb–March, outflows dried up while price was still flat around $70k. Green days quietly returned. BTC rallied to $83k shortly after. The flow flipped BEFORE the price did. That's the pattern worth watching now not the price level. When the red bars start shrinking and the first green clusters reappear while BTC goes nowhere, that's real demand stepping back in. Until then, every bounce is fighting against the largest marginal seller in the market. Price tells you what happened. Flows tell you who's doing it. Track ETF netflows daily foredex.io @ForeDex_Global
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Inflection point? 🧐
$BTC On-Chain & Sentiment Analysis: The "Panic Long" Trap and the 1st OI Flush The recent price drop triggered a massive flush in Open Interest (OI), effectively cleaning up excessive leverage. Normally, when the froth is cleared out like this, it creates a healthy environment to build a bottom. However, the real issue is what is happening right now, immediately after this flush. The most chilling point is the severe divergence between sentiment indicators. The Fear & Greed Index is sitting at 12 (Extreme Fear), showing absolute retail panic. Yet, the Crypto YouTube Narrative Index remains at 55 (Neutral). The masses are terrified, but influencers are still injecting hopium, calling this the definitive bottom. This psychological contradiction is perfectly reflected on-chain. Before the blood from the 1st flush has even dried, OI has started pointing up again while the price stalls at support, and Funding Rates are printing green (positive). Driven by influencer narratives, retail traders are aggressively stacking leveraged "Panic Longs." The chart was just cleaned, but premature buyers have made it heavily loaded again. From a market maker's perspective, the zone right below the current support is a perfect hunting ground densely packed with stop-losses. This setup provides the perfect excuse for a 2nd downward sweep. A true capitulation bottom only forms when influencers finally turn bearish, and retail surrender turns funding rates blood red. To be clear: this is not a post screaming "Short everything!" Rather, it is a strict warning about the extreme fragility and vulnerability of the current holding structure. I am not blindly biased toward a crash; I am simply choosing to remain completely sidelined until a high-probability structure that I actually trust presents itself. Data: @ForeDex_Global #Bitcoin #OnChain #BTC #λΉ„νŠΈμ½”μΈ
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Leo Ruga retweeted
🐳 ForeDex 인증 μ• λ„λ¦¬μŠ€νŠΈ @RugaResearch κ°€ μ „λ‚  큰 반ν–₯을 μΌμœΌν‚¨ λΉ„νŠΈμ½”μΈ 채꡴ 원가 데이터에 λŒ€ν•œ 깊이 μžˆλŠ” λ§₯락을 μΆ”κ°€ν–ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€. πŸ“’ ν•œλ§ˆλ”” μš”μ•½: ν˜„μž¬ 채꡴ λ°μ΄ν„°λŠ” 상μž₯된 λŒ€ν˜• 채꡴ κΈ°μ—…λ“€μ˜ μ‹€μ œ 운영 ν˜„μ‹€μ„ λ°˜μ˜ν•œ μ§€ν‘œμ΄λ©°, μ±„κ΅΄μžλ“€μ˜ 좜혈이 λ‚œμ΄λ„ 쑰정을 거쳐 μ‹œμž₯ κ· ν˜•μœΌλ‘œ μ΄μ–΄μ§€λŠ” ꡬ쑰적 μ „ν™˜μ μ„ μ£Όλͺ©ν•  νƒ€μ΄λ°μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€. πŸ“Š λ§Žμ€ 뢄듀이 일뢀 κ΅­κ°€μ˜ μ €λ ΄ν•œ μ „κΈ°μ„Έλ‚˜ 개인 채꡴ λΉ„μš©μ„ μ–ΈκΈ‰ν•˜μ§€λ§Œ, λ³Έ λ°μ΄ν„°λŠ” MARA, RIOT, CLSK λ“± κΈ€λ‘œλ²Œ λŒ€ν˜• 상μž₯ μ±„κ΅΄μ‚¬λ“€μ˜ 평균적인 ν˜„μ‹€μ„ λ‹΄κ³  μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€. μ „κΈ°μ„ΈλΏλ§Œ μ•„λ‹ˆλΌ μ‹œμ„€ 운영, μž₯λΉ„ μœ μ§€λ³΄μˆ˜, κΈ°μ—… λΉ„μš© 등이 λͺ¨λ‘ ν¬ν•¨λœ μ‹€μ§ˆμ μΈ 생쑴 λ‹¨κ°€μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€. 일뢀 νˆ¬μžμžλ“€μ€ '채꡴ λ‚œμ΄λ„ μ‘°μ •'을 λ°˜λ°• 근거둜 λ“€μ§€λ§Œ, λ‚œμ΄λ„ μ‘°μ •μ΄μ•Όλ§λ‘œ μ‹œμž₯이 압박을 κ²¬λŽŒλ‚΄λŠ” 핡심 λ©”μ»€λ‹ˆμ¦˜μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€. μ±„κ΅΄μžλ“€μ΄ μΆœν˜ˆμ„ 버티지 λͺ»ν•΄ 일뢀가 기계λ₯Ό 끄면, μ—°μ‚° λŠ₯λ ₯이 λ–¨μ–΄μ§€κ³  λ‚œμ΄λ„κ°€ ν•˜ν–₯ μ‘°μ •λ˜λ©΄μ„œ κ²°κ΅­ λΉ„μš©μ˜ κ· ν˜•μ„ λ‹€μ‹œ λ§žμΆ”κ²Œ λ©λ‹ˆλ‹€. 이 λ°μ΄ν„°λŠ” λ°”λ‘œ κ·Έ 역사적인 μž¬μ‘°μ • 과정을 μ •ν™•νžˆ ν¬μ°©ν•˜κ³  μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
Last night I posted this chart about mining production cost. Used it in my Weekly Intelligence Report too. It resonated, so let me add context. Most comments focused on individual mining costs. Iran at $1,200. Solar farms. PPAs at $5 per MWh. Those are real. And that's exactly the point. This is an average across public miners. Think MARA, RIOT, CLSK, BITF, HUT, WULF. Total cash cost of producing Bitcoin: electricity, facility ops, equipment maintenance, pool fees, corporate expenses. Depreciation excluded. It's the operational reality of the reporting mining network, not someone running ASICs in a garage. πŸ˜‚ Others brought up difficulty adjustment as a counter. But difficulty adjustment IS the stress response imo. Miners bleed, some shut down, hashrate drops, difficulty adjusts, costs rebalance. That's the mechanism this chart should capture. Hope you guys enjoy what @ForeDex_Global is bringing to the table. More to come. πŸ“Š
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Leo Ruga retweeted
Open interest in ETH terms reaches all-time high on Binance β€œSentiment around Ethereum has deteriorated significantly in recent months, an increasing number of investors appear willing to take the risk of rebuilding exposure, particularly on the long side.” – By @Darkfost_Coc
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Yesterday I was #16 Rising in Crypto on Substack. Today I woke up at #5. πŸ”₯ I started giving on-chain lessons for @diegospanevello community, then moved to CryptoQuant quicktakes, and earlier this year launched my own newsletter with weekly reports. To see it rising alongside people like @_Checkmatey_ , @DurdenBTC and with @IT_Tech_PL in the Top 100, is something I don't take lightly. I still have a small subscriber base. But if the work is climbing, someone out there finds value in it. That's enough to keep pushing. Honest reads, real data, real positioning. Every week. This is just getting started. 🀝
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If you want to be part of this journey, subscribe and help me keep climbing: rugaresearch.substack.com

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Yesterday I was #16 Rising in Crypto on Substack. Today I woke up at #5. πŸ”₯ I started giving on-chain lessons for @diegospanevello community, then moved to CryptoQuant quicktakes, and earlier this year launched my own newsletter with weekly reports. To see it rising alongside people like @_Checkmatey_ , @DurdenBTC and with @IT_Tech_PL in the Top 100, is something I don't take lightly. I still have a small subscriber base. But if the work is climbing, someone out there finds value in it. That's enough to keep pushing. Honest reads, real data, real positioning. Every week. This is just getting started. 🀝
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If you want to be part of this journey, subscribe and help me keep climbing: rugaresearch.substack.com

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Last night I posted this chart about mining production cost. Used it in my Weekly Intelligence Report too. It resonated, so let me add context. Most comments focused on individual mining costs. Iran at $1,200. Solar farms. PPAs at $5 per MWh. Those are real. And that's exactly the point. This is an average across public miners. Think MARA, RIOT, CLSK, BITF, HUT, WULF. Total cash cost of producing Bitcoin: electricity, facility ops, equipment maintenance, pool fees, corporate expenses. Depreciation excluded. It's the operational reality of the reporting mining network, not someone running ASICs in a garage. πŸ˜‚ Others brought up difficulty adjustment as a counter. But difficulty adjustment IS the stress response imo. Miners bleed, some shut down, hashrate drops, difficulty adjusts, costs rebalance. That's the mechanism this chart should capture. Hope you guys enjoy what @ForeDex_Global is bringing to the table. More to come. πŸ“Š
I keep coming back to this chart. Average Bitcoin mining production cost: $71,130. BTC spot: ~$61,000. Miners are paying ~14% more to produce each coin than they can sell it for. The operational floor (bare minimum to keep machines running) sits at $44,610. So they're not shutting down yet. But they're bleeding. This is one of the rarest conditions in Bitcoin's history. The people who invested millions in hardware and energy contracts are underwater on every coin they produce. It doesn't last long. Either price recovers toward production cost, or miners capitulate and hash rate drops until the math rebalances. Both paths have historically resolved upward within 1-3 months. Not calling a bottom. Just pointing at the math. πŸ“Š Chart: @ForeDex_Global
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Since you're already here, I share deeper analysis every week on Substack. Come say hi. substack.com/@rugaresearch

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I keep coming back to this chart. Average Bitcoin mining production cost: $71,130. BTC spot: ~$61,000. Miners are paying ~14% more to produce each coin than they can sell it for. The operational floor (bare minimum to keep machines running) sits at $44,610. So they're not shutting down yet. But they're bleeding. This is one of the rarest conditions in Bitcoin's history. The people who invested millions in hardware and energy contracts are underwater on every coin they produce. It doesn't last long. Either price recovers toward production cost, or miners capitulate and hash rate drops until the math rebalances. Both paths have historically resolved upward within 1-3 months. Not calling a bottom. Just pointing at the math. πŸ“Š Chart: @ForeDex_Global
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πŸ“ŠFour independent resets happening at the same time. On-chain, derivatives, and valuation all arriving at the same place. This week's report breaks down who's selling, who's buying into it, and what my systems are reading at $63K. Plus a first look at a new model I'm building. Full analysis for paid subscribers. Link below. πŸ‘‡
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#16 in Rising Crypto on Substack. πŸ”₯ I started this newsletter a year ago with zero subscribers and zero expectations. Just research I was already doing for myself, shared publicly because I thought someone else might find it useful. Today we're top 20 in one of the most competitive categories on the platform. I didn't run ads. I didn't cross-promote. I didn't even have a paid tier until this week. πŸ˜‚ This was built entirely on organic readers who found value in the work and stuck around. To everyone who subscribed, opened the emails, bookmarked the posts, shared with a friend, thank you. Genuinely. This wouldn't exist without you. We're just getting started. I'm going to keep delivering the best research I can in order to bring value to those around me. 🀝
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If you are not subscribed to my channel on Substack yet, join me below: rugaresearch.substack.com/

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The worst weeks to look at your portfolio are usually the best weeks to study the data. Everything interesting happens when nobody wants to pay attention. Is there a "law of physics" or something like it for that? πŸ˜‚
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✍️Been writing free research for over a year. CryptoQuant quicktakes, dashboards, threads. Now running a Substack. Free weekly content for everyone. Paid tier for the full read: on-chain research, positioning systems, market direction, and what can go wrong. There's a launch discount at the end of this post. For everyone who's been following along 🀝
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One of my systems flagged bearish on May 20. By Report #003 I had already reduced risk and was holding cash. BTC was around $77K then. It's $63.5K today. I always publish what can go wrong in each report. That week, the data said demand had collapsed and spot buyers were absent. The system read it before price confirmed it.
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Every week: the models, my positioning, the risks, and a clear direction. Free subscribers get the analysis. Paid subscribers get the alpha. 🫑 rugaresearch.substack.com/p/…

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