Postdoctoral Research Fellow at All Souls College @UniofOxford | Research Affiliate at @cepr_org | Economics
Joined March 2009
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119 Photos and videos
Jun 13
Preordering mine!
This looks like a must-read!
"Macro: The Economic Models That Shape Our World" by Greg Kaplan (available in November).
"In clear and engaging prose, Chicago economist Greg Kaplan demystifies how our everyday behavior, including how we spend and save, connects to the biggest questions in fiscal and monetary policy. Tracing the evolution of modern macroeconomics from Keynes to today, he guides readers through the models that are often used to explain our economy, uncovers their flaws, and reveals what cutting-edge research tells us about managing the economy in good times and bad. The journey culminates in HANK, a macroeconomic model co-created by Kaplan that is more consistent with reality. Macro offers a timely, new framework for understanding and shaping economics in the real world."
amzn.to/4xt6MSR
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Jun 12
Now explain degrowth to Juan Hernandez.
Jun 12
A man working as a welder at SpaceX for $28 an hour has just become a millionaire.
Juan Hernandez, who came from Mexico, welded rockets for SpaceX at $28 an hour.
SpaceX gave him $10,000 in stock when he went full time in 2015, and he bought more with every paycheck for 10 years.
$SPCX is now trading at $167, making his shares worth over $1 million.
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Europe's has a big divide between fixed-rate and variable rate banking systems.
It offers a great opportunity to understand how loan pricing affects monetary policy transmission.
Here is a short 🧵 based on:
galonuno.com/uploads/1/3/4/6…
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For those interested, here are my slides from yesterday's Cowles Lecture at the Econometric Society Meetings @YaleCowles @econometricsoc
benjaminmoll.com/cowles_lect…
Thanks so much for listening and for the great discussion and comments!
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Rustam Jamilov retweeted
May 31
Excited to FINALLY release toughest most rewarding paper I've worked on...
….we attack a 150 year old Walras question that's gone unanswered, not for lack of trying (Hicks, Samuelson, Arrow; our chances?😱)...
Q: Is the market equilibrium stable or unstable?¯\_(ツ)_/¯
🧵
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May 28
Case in point for Griliches (1969).
Another major problem, this time in additive combinatorics, has fallen, this time to humans rather than AI, but using methods related to the AI solution to the unit distance conjecture.
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Rustam Jamilov retweeted
May 26
With my great co-authors at @CenTaxUK, we have built a matched worker-to-firm database for the UK: the Business-to-Worker Register.
It covers the universe of UK workers (not just employees) and all UK organisations (not just employers, corporations or private sector).
Short 🧵
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New CEPR Discussion Paper - DP21523
Tax News and Intertemporal Substitution
Martin Blomhoff Holm @UniOslo, Rustam Jamilov @UniofOxford, Marek Jasinski @ssbnytt, Plamen Nenov @NorgesBank
ow.ly/QhXh50Z3bQu
#CEPR_IMF #CEPR_MEF
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May 19
For 22 years I have been patiently waiting for this. Doesn’t feel real. COYG! ❤️
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Rustam Jamilov retweeted
Really cool!
"Systemic Banking Crises Database: 1970-2025" by Luc Laeven and Fabian Valencia.
"This paper presents an updated version of the Laeven and Valencia (2013, 2020) database on systemic banking crises, extending the coverage through 2025. The update incorporates new episodes, while maintaining the definition established in previous editions, which emphasizes both significant signs of financial distress and substantial policy interventions. The update integrates textual tools to screen potential candidates that are then further scrutinized to confirm if our definition is met. The database includes information on banking crises episodes during 1970-2025, including starting dates, policy responses, fiscal costs, and output losses. It offers a comprehensive tool for assessing cross-country vulnerabilities and policies to resolve banking crises."
elibrary.imf.org/view/journa…
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Apr 10
Check out this very nice paper by my coauthor and finance PhD student at Said Business School - Chris Hyland.
Apr 10
"Taming Black Swans: Monetary Policy in the Presence of Tail Risks", papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.…
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Rustam Jamilov retweeted
Congratulations to N. Gregory Mankiw, newly elected Distinguished Fellow. N. Gregory Mankiw is the Robert M. Beren Professor of Economics at @Harvard. aeaweb.org/about-aea/honors-…
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Apr 7
Congratulations to the great Ludwig Straub for winning the John Bates Clark medal!
aeaweb.org/about-aea/honors-…
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Apr 7
In addition to the papers listed and discussed on the AEA website, also check out Straub-Werning (AER, 2020):
aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.12…
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Mar 28
Krusell Smith
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Mar 27
A new paper shows that the release of Pirates of the Caribbean was associated with a 38% decline in real-world piracy incidents. The lives saved by Disney are staggering.
Mar 26
A new paper shows that neoliberal austerity policies implemented by the World Bank and the IMF in Sub-Saharan Africa in the 1980s and 1990s were associated with a *20% decline in real incomes.*
The destruction caused by these organisations across the Global South is staggering.
Community note
This tweet, and the paper itself, often use causal language. But the research paper has no causal identification strategy, so no claims or implied claims of causality should be made.
gh.bmj.com/content/11/Sup…
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Mar 27
This is very inaccurate. First, Figure 6 of the paper already has the exact same robustness test (1980-2019) and results do not change. Second, this is not a proper replication, it is a different specification. The paper replicates fine afaik. Third, prompting chat bots with variants of “find mistakes in this paper” is not science and can lead to rushed conclusions.
Mar 26
I have worked with ChatGPT to replicate the main figure in the famous QJE 2026 paper by Bilal and Kanzig. The Macroeconomic Impact of Climate Change: Global vs. Local Temperature. The 1960 to 2019 result vanishes if we focus on the years 1980 to 2019!!
drive.google.com/file/d/1QeQ…
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