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Shamubeel Eaqub @SEaqub

Economist, author, commentator.

Joined July 2015
  • Tweets 2,008
  • Following 564
  • Followers 7,571
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Alcohol creates significant harm to individuals, close ones and society. It’s off the charts on this paper. Bit nerdy and for those curious: ias.org.uk/uploads/pdf/News%…

Newsroom@NewsroomNZ
19 Jun 2024
It looks as if the Ministry of Health wants to promote a flawed and inflated measure of the social cost of alcohol to help it lobby for a higher alcohol levy, writes Dr Eric Crampton. newsroom.co.nz/2024/06/18/ex…
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How much of the ‘Covid hangover’ is hiding longer term fraying of the social fabric? Put forward some of my emerging thoughts on this on @TheDetailNZ on @radionz . rnz.co.nz/programmes/the-det…

An upheaval sparked by crisis

It's been nearly two years since New Zealand shook off its Covid isolation, but the populace is far from content

rnz.co.nz
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Budget 24 has delivered tax cuts, spending cuts and more borrowing.
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The new government promised austerity. Budget 24 delivers it. Although it may be less severe than it seems, when you look at history.
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Ran out time yesterday as was on live TV. A few more things. Planned spending vs above charts will be increased by operating allowances, but the FM has set them very skinny. The decline vs 2024 will be a lot. Expect huge competition for this limited pool of funds.
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Budget 2024 is out and it delivered tax cuts as promised in the election campaign. It was funded with spending cuts and increased borrowing. The spending relative to GDP is useful to understand. See thread below for the high level numbers.
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And, the capex profile is lower. Hello infra deficit, hang around for longer!
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Transport & communications.
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Defence.
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Law & order.
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Education.
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Health spend.
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NZ home insurance costs are increasing fast. As expected given massive insured losses (eg see @_ICNZ ) from climate events last year here and abroad. Over the past decade dwelling insurance cost 104%, wages 46%, CPI 30%.
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NZ inflation at 4% in March 24 moderating alongside international peers. Quarterly rate annualised at ~2.4% looking promising for rest of year.
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Workplace H&S is a big issue for NZ because we aren't very good. Even excluding Whakaari, NZ workplace fatality rate in the last decade is 2.8x higher than Australia. If we matched Australia, 280 people would still be alive. Not killing people isn't reactionary. @NZQandA
Q A@NZQandA
7 Apr 2024
In December, Australia became the first in the world to ban engineered stone after a spike of tradies developed silicosis from working with the material. Should NZ do the same? Brooke van Velden says she's considering the evidence first 👉 youtube.com/watch?v=pSU35srZ…
Poster of Brooke van Velden quote: "I don't want to be a reactionary politician where any red flag or signal means we stop the economy." Subheading: Workplace Relations Minister on why NZ hasn't immediately banned engineered stone amid health concerns

ALT Poster of Brooke van Velden quote: "I don't want to be a reactionary politician where any red flag or signal means we stop the economy." Subheading: Workplace Relations Minister on why NZ hasn't immediately banned engineered stone amid health concerns

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Wellington central government job losses have begun. The sector has grown a lot in recent years. Last National-led government also cut in first term, but had to hire again after in following terms. Hard to do ambitious reforms and delivery without public servants.
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NZ GDP data for Dec-23 confirmed what we knew for over a year - NZ is in recession. The economy is about making more people better off. We're doing the more people bit, not the better off bit. GDP per capita has been falling since a peak in Sep-22.
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Economy is roughly returns on labour and returns on capital. The reduction in GDP per capita since Sep-22 almost due to a big slump in profits. Which then leads to less hiring and investment.
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Oct-23 Food Price Index from @Stats_NZ shows prices have been going sideways since mid-year. But not really getting cheaper. (1/3)
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The rate of food price inflation is moderating. The levels vs inflation rate is quite telling here. Sometimes annual inflation rates don't tell the full story. (2/3)
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The NZ shifts are broadly in line with global agriculture price trends. Which have eased from peak at start of Russia-Ukraine war, but remain much higher than pre-pandemic times. Suggests food prices won't get much cheaper, but should not rise too much in the next year. (3/3)
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