SEC Status in early November according to SalientWAM:
The overall college football schedule this week (week 13) is lackluster. Week 14 is going to be edge of your seat, buckle your chinstrap, heavyweight fighting.
Are you ready for this??
Georgia is outside looking in on the SECCG but a lock for the CFP. If Georgia loses to Tech, Georgia will drop several slots in the seeding but still go to the CFP. The Tech game has no bearing on the chances of the Dogs playing in the SECCG. If the Dogs beat Tech, they will be no lower than the #3 seed for the playoffs. No team that had a first round bye (top 4 seeds) in the playoffs last year advanced to the 3rd round. However, if Georgia doesn’t play in the SECCG, a two-week layoff going into the CFP could be advantageous for the Kirby and the Dogs. Whether a team wins or loses a tough and important game like the SECCG, it takes an emotional toll that is difficult to overcome and prepare for a playoff-caliber team.
Texas A&M is in the driver’s seat because they are undefeated. If they beat Texas, Texas A&M is in the SECCG and heading to the CFP as well. Their seeding will depend on the outcome of the SECCG. If Texas A&M loses to Texas, Georgia goes to the SECCG and Texas A&M drops below the top 4 seeds for CFP – not a bad fate for the Aggies.
Ole Miss is like Georgia in that they are outside looking in for the SECCG. Ole Miss, who has never played in the SECCG, has to beat Miss St combined with a Texas A&M loss to Texas and Alabama loss to Auburn for the Rebels to make their debut in the SECCG. That scenario is too far-fetched with all those “ifs”, so don’t count on that. Nevertheless, if Ole Miss beats Miss St in the Egg Bowl, 11-1 Ole Miss goes to the CFP. They will probably go to the CFP with a loss to Miss St, at 10-2. However, their seeding would be near the bottom of the 12 teams.
Alabama is a real wild card. Which team will show up against Auburn? The Tigers have a terrible record and an interim coach, but they are no joke. If Alabama beats Auburn, the Tide goes to the SECCG to play Texas A&M or Georgia, if Texas beats the Aggies. If Alabama wins the SECCG, they will earn a good draw for the CFP. No matter what, all hell is going to break loose if Alabama loses the SECCG. The committee has always maintained that a conference championship game loss will not eliminate a team that was on track to be included in the field of 12. If that holds true, a 3-loss Alabama team goes to the playoffs and a 2-loss team (that probably doesn’t deserve it anyway) will be relegated to an inferior bowl game. Prepare yourself for lots of screaming and gnashing of teeth. If the committee doesn’t include an Alabama team with their 3rd loss coming in the SECCG, Greg Sankey, and probably much of the SEC will go ballistic! That could have implications on the entire future of the CFP, because the SEC is the goose laying golden eggs.
Oklahoma still has to play Missouri and LSU. If they win out, their record will be 10-2 and deserving of a spot in the CFP.
Vanderbilt still has to play Kentucky and Tennessee. Like Oklahoma, if they win out, their record will be 10-2 and they too will deserve of a spot in the CFP.
The hypothetical situations with Oklahoma and Vanderbilt have the potential to create a colossal mess for college football. Both could realistically win out without directly impacting the top four. Five SEC teams could earn spots in the CFP with grumbling from the B1G but without a huge controversy overall. Six teams from the SEC cannot go to the CFP, so who is left out?? Finally, what if these three teams win out, Alabama loses in the SECCG? Alabama will need to go to the CFP, even as a 3-loss team. Then, as I said before, who is left out?
Well… we have two weeks to think about it. Nothing will happen this Saturday to impact these top 4 teams in the SEC. We just have to wait until next weekend and see what shakes out. I don’t care what anybody says. This college playoff setup is crazy and exciting!
@BillisKing