Forecasting on important questions
Joined September 2022
- Tweets 30
- Following 11
- Followers 1,208
- Likes 11
6 Photos and videos
Samotsvety Forecasting retweeted
6 Apr 2025
I’ve been excited to see all the discussion of AI 2027, positive and negative. Here I'll respond to some themes of the criticisms we've gotten (this is all my opinion, not the team’s):
(1) It’s just speculative sci-fi
(2) 2027 is too soon
(3) We’re pushing the doomer agenda
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3 Apr 2025
"How, exactly, could AI take over by 2027?"
Introducing AI 2027: a deeply-researched scenario forecast I wrote alongside @slatestarcodex, @eli_lifland, and @thlarsen
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Samotsvety Forecasting retweeted
17 Mar 2025
Thread with some highlights from Sentinel's global risks weekly roundup 🧵
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Samotsvety Forecasting retweeted
13 Feb 2024
Nice article by Dylan Matthews in Vox on @SamotsvetyF, one of the groups I forecast with.
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Samotsvety Forecasting retweeted
13 Feb 2024
Has been a fun ride with an awesome group of people. Looking forward to the coming years and appreciate Dylan’s work on the article.
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Samotsvety Forecasting retweeted
13 Feb 2024
Very nice piece about our forecasting team @SamotsvetyF from Dylan Matthews at @voxdotcom.
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18 Oct 2023
Important work by @TolgaBilge_ and forecasters on the chance of AI catastrophe and how we can avoid it
18 Oct 2023
We just published with @SamotsvetyF, a group of expert forecasters, a forecasting report with 3 key contributions:
1. A predicted 30% chance of AI catastrophe
2. A Treaty on AI Safety and Cooperation (TAISC)
3. P(AI Catastrophe|Policy): the effects of 2 AI policies on risk
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Samotsvety Forecasting retweeted
11 Oct 2023
I find this hillarious. Personally I'm a fan of Samotsvety remaining a "there is this group with a vaguely Russian name. and they are good at predicting stuff, I promise, they're not scammers", but it looks like I'm going to get outvoted.
11 Oct 2023
.@dylanmatt describing the challenges of citing superforecasters and prediction markets in journals.
This is just one point of many. More challenges and proposed solutions in the full talk! youtu.be/xMVaEYMp7_o?si=rocc…
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8 Aug 2023
Samotsvety forecasters did not fact-check this.
8 Aug 2023
If you invite me to your wedding, you will stay together.
Factchecked by real samosvety superforecasters
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23 Jun 2023
Jonathan Mann writes about the future of the tech job market for @asteriskmgzn
asteriskmag.com/issues/03/ai…
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14 Jun 2023
Our excellent @celloMolly is one of the mentors!
8 Jun 2023
We are launching the Epoch and Forecasting Research Institute mentorship program for women, non-binary people, and trans people of all genders who want to contribute to the field of AI forecasting. Apply now! epochai.org/blog/epoch-and-f…
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Samotsvety Forecasting retweeted
15 Mar 2023
The next pandemic is coming.
How can we predict what it will be? Or when it might come?
@juan_cambeiro forecasts the next Covid-level outbreak in Issue 02.
asteriskmag.com/issues/2/wha…
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27 Feb 2023
New Samotsvety (draft) report is out on "Moore v. Harper and the future of US democracy", by Greg Justice.
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21 Feb 2023
"Is that a low disagreeableness reply, or do you actually agree. If so, how so?" — @NunoSempere
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Samotsvety Forecasting retweeted
24 Jan 2023
Samotsvety (@SamotsvetyF) has updated its AGI timelines. The median forecaster now believes AGI has a 50% chance of arriving by 2041, and a 31% chance of arriving by 2030.
forum.effectivealtruism.org/…
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24 Jan 2023
Yep, also posted on our blog here: <samotsvety.org/blog/2023/01/…>
24 Jan 2023
Samotsvety (@SamotsvetyF) has updated its AGI timelines. The median forecaster now believes AGI has a 50% chance of arriving by 2041, and a 31% chance of arriving by 2030.
forum.effectivealtruism.org/…
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Samotsvety Forecasting retweeted
12 Dec 2022
We're creating a database for base rates!
forum.effectivealtruism.org/…
The idea is to collect base rates for different categories of events and makes them available to researchers, forecasters and philanthropic organisations. 1/
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21 Nov 2022
An analysis of monkeypox from our own Jared Leibovich for the newly launched Asterisk!
21 Nov 2022
Each issue, we'll feature a forecaster who walks through their modeling process. In our debut issue, Jared Leibovich, the top forecaster on @GJ_Open, models the end of monkeypox in the United States.
asteriskmag.com/issues/1/mod…
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Thinking about the prospect of nuclear war in terms of personal risk might sound callous, but getting to grips with probabilities might help us make better decisions about our own lives. Via @WIREDUK wired.trib.al/5abjfBJ
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