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The World Cup heat map isn’t what you’d guess.
Houston, Dallas, Atlanta, three of the hottest cities in America, are among the coolest places to play. Roofs shut, AC on, every game at 19.
Miami has no roof and never lets up. Philadelphia bakes. The danger is the open-air stadiums, not the hot cities.
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Houston is forecast for days of flooding rain this week, up to 12 inches.
A World Cup match plays there Wednesday. It’ll be completely dry.
NRG closes its roof and plays at a committed 19, sealed off from whatever the sky does. The same roof that ranked Houston among the tournament’s coolest venues now carries a match through a storm without a drop reaching the pitch.
Forecast: US Weather Prediction Center. 19 from our committed grid.
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The full venue heat ranking this comes from, every World Cup stadium by committed WBGT: open.substack.com/pub/santis…
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The World Cup heat map isn’t what you’d guess.
Houston, Dallas, Atlanta, three of the hottest cities in America, are among the coolest places to play. Roofs shut, AC on, every game at 19.
Miami has no roof and never lets up. Philadelphia bakes. The danger is the open-air stadiums, not the hot cities.
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Every team’s heat exposure for the group stage, all 48 mapped by how much their venues actually protect them: open.substack.com/pub/santis…
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A French daily interviewed me on the heat at this World Cup.
The market has France as a top-two pick. They also drew the hottest route of any contender, 2.3 degrees clear of the next team. No group kickoff in the tournament runs hotter than their game in Philadelphia.
The price isn’t reading the draw.
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Committed WBGT for all three France games, the full contender route ranking, and the model-vs-market read: open.substack.com/pub/santis…
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Jun 15
My concerns about Ecuador proved right.
CIV beat Ecuador on xG 1.68-1.01
The win is deserved. South America yet to show up to WC26z
Jun 14
Everyone expects Ecuador to stroll this. It won’t be so easy.
Two elite defenses meet in Philly: Ecuador conceded 5 in 18 quals, Ivory Coast none. Goals will be scarce, the draw very live.
Ecuador attack led by the limited but evergreen Enner Valencia. CIV is powered by starlet Yan Diomande.
Ecuador edge it if anyone does. The scoreline should stay small.
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Jun 15
Everyone’s reading the World Cup heat wrong.
They look at how far teams run. It barely changes in the heat. So they shrug.
Wrong stat. Look at the sprints. Brazil ran almost all theirs through one man, Raphinha. Lose him to the heat and a quarter of their attack is gone.
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Jun 14
Everyone expects Ecuador to stroll this. It won’t be so easy.
Two elite defenses meet in Philly: Ecuador conceded 5 in 18 quals, Ivory Coast none. Goals will be scarce, the draw very live.
Ecuador attack led by the limited but evergreen Enner Valencia. CIV is powered by starlet Yan Diomande.
Ecuador edge it if anyone does. The scoreline should stay small.
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Jun 14
Uruguay’s 4-hr delay to be allowed entry into the USA for tomorrow’s match v Saudi in Miami is not great news.
Uruguay already had the group stage’s worst possible combo for travel x heat x older legs burden.
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Jun 14
The World Cup heat gets priced as a tax every team pays. The Dallas dome commits 19.0 with the roof shut, the coolest conditions any outfield team will play in, and Netherlands and Japan just opened there.
France will run three open-air afternoons at 25-plus. Six degrees of separation, sorted in the December draw, before anyone kicked a ball.
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SantiSignals retweeted
Jun 14
What a dream.
Scotland’s first win at the World Cup in 36 years.
I was there! 🤩🥹
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Jun 14
Germany v Curaçao, NRG Houston. Goliath vs the smallest nation ever at a World Cup: ~156k people, FIFA #82, on debut.
Germany win. The live question is the margin. Curaçao qualified on defense; it's leaked lately (4-1 Scotland, 3 in 5).
Desk read: Germany by 3 . Graded FT.
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Jun 14
It’s pouring rain with an excessive-heat warning in Houston right now, hours before Germany v Curaçao.
It will not affect the match. The stadium is roofed and air-conditioned — committed heat near zero.
This is the whole point: the host city tells you almost nothing. The venue does. The teams sweating at this World Cup aren’t the ones you’d guess.
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Jun 14
The full committed-heat ranking for all 104 matches is here. Houston’s not even close to the top: open.substack.com/pub/santis…
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Jun 14
Tornado sirens over England’s Kansas City base last night. Bit of a red herring though.
KC’s just the camp. The matches are elsewhere. Dallas they get a roof, 19 on our numbers. Then it’s two in the afternoon sun, Boston and New York, 24 and 25.5.
Storm’s a camp problem. The heat travels with them.
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Jun 14
June 24, 21:00 ET: Group A ends twice at the same minute. Mexico City 16°, Monterrey 26° — ten degrees apart, the widest final-day gap of any group.
December’s draw decided who you play. The schedule decided whose legs are gone first.
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Jun 14
Committed heat for all 104 matches — Group A is the cleanest case in the tournament.
Full read: open.substack.com/pub/santis…
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