Not a trader, I swear. Just obsessed with capturing lowest cost basis on falling knives, which entails lots of buying and selling. NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.
Joined January 2025
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9 Apr 2025
I don't know when it will be, but I believe we will look back at the tariff crash as we did the Covid crash - something rapid, severe, and short-lived.
It may even be a quicker recovery than Covid, as there were rolling bottoms for many sectors during that time. Here, *almost everything is crashing at once. Both safe havens and speculative.
*There are a few holdouts right now, like P&C insurance. But for most part, everything is crashing. Even munis are having their worst day in 31 years, so we took out the GFC record on that.
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Some things to consider regarding the non-SpaceX space stocks selloff yesterday.
Many ETFs, funds, and money managers had bought them leading up to the IPO, especially $SATS, with the idea to rotate into $SPCX when they could.
This created an exaggerated move down on Friday. Definitely buying opportunities on some.
To show you how ridiculous these moves are, consider the NAV of EchoStar for its SpaceX stock was $122/share at the IPO price of $135.
$SATS closed Friday at $114.
Yes, holdco's should trade at discount but based on $SPCX closing price Friday, each EchoStar share = $145.50 value of SpaceX stock.
That's a 21% discount!
Will post about $RKLB and $ASTS later. Just wait 'til Barron's etc. start telling boomers about SpaceX alternatives.
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Jun 12
Just heard them say Rocket Labs again on TV.
Still early.
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Jun 12
Every time I glance at CNBC today, @altcap pumping SpaceX. Brad, how about actually highlighting the negatives, too?
Certainly not as much as you, but I own millions in $SPCX pre-IPO and as long as I've been on X, I've probably spoken more about the negatives than the positives.
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Even when you get in, you can't place orders and I'm not talking SpaceX orders.
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Do NOT flip your $SPCX IPO shares from Fidelity!
You get lifetime ban if you do it 3 times but @brent_e_trader got it for doing it just once.
Apparently a software glitch and customer service can't override it.
Fidelity flipping ban is linked to your Social Security number, not your account. So this is not a problem you can solve by just using different accounts.
Monday, June 29th is first safe day to sell your SpaceX stock.
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Jun 12
SpaceX $SPCX IPO allocation from Robinhood, how many shares did you get?
109 out of 1,000 here.
Still waiting to see what Fidelity gives me.
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7 Dec 2025
You are a fool if you think you can predict the future.
That said, I'll give it a stab at SpaceX with these 7 predictions:
(1) If indeed IPO happens in 2H 2026, the main reason for the ~$800B tender offer now is because Musk wants a $1T IPO. Would look too ridiculous to jump to that from the $400B of Sept during the Echostar $SATS deal.
(2) Musk is obsessed with letter X and will do whatever it takes to get $X ticker. As you know, that recently became available with US Steel being acquired by Nippon Steel. Historically, 1-2 letter tickers were reserved for NYSE, but that has changed in recent years so Nasdaq is possible.
(3) Everyone moves to Nasdaq now, desiring $QQQ inclusion and similar tag-along valuation boosters, but I'd actually give 70/30 odds of SpaceX going on NYSE, if it goes on one of these two. $ICE owns NYSE and is still founder-led by Sprecher, who isn't playing around.
(4) The new Texas Stock Exchange, which aims to come online in 2026, would no doubt do anything to land SpaceX stock debut. To accomplish that, they would have to actually pay SpaceX vs. the other way around. Giving them an ownership stake and/or rebating trading fee revenue back to SpaceX (the latter of which NYSE will also dangle as incentive).
(5) If Texas Stock Exchange doesn't land SpaceX IPO, good odds of getting them to jump ship in coming years.
(6) Despite an estimated TTM revenue (not earnings) of just $15.5B, SpaceX will land a $1T valuation. You will hear much talk of direct-to-cell using their new bandwidth (be careful $ASTS bulls), offering alternative to undersea data cables, and data centers in space.
The latter faces many challenges which are not obvious. Such as despite the extreme cold of space, heat dissipation in a vacuum would require potentially massive radiator systems, a major engineering challenge not yet solved. Nonetheless, the excitement of such possibility bolsters valuation.
Also, data centers in space are like international waters; a good way to get around data privacy laws. There is a market there.
(7) Despite their dollar values now being not too far apart, I expect my Rocket Lab $RKLB stock to be worth significantly more than my SpaceX stock on December 31, 2026.
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Jun 11
(8) $TSLA will merge with $SPCX in a way to ensure or create high likelihood of Musk getting his nearly trillion dollar SBC from Tesla.
(9) I stand by my prediction of $X ticker. It has already been reserved and who do you think did that? When they merge, they will use Musk's favorite letter, the ticker used by Nippon Steel for over a century.
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Revisiting my predictions last year for a SpaceX IPO $SPCX this year.
I think I did OK.
7 Dec 2025
You are a fool if you think you can predict the future.
That said, I'll give it a stab at SpaceX with these 7 predictions:
(1) If indeed IPO happens in 2H 2026, the main reason for the ~$800B tender offer now is because Musk wants a $1T IPO. Would look too ridiculous to jump to that from the $400B of Sept during the Echostar $SATS deal.
(2) Musk is obsessed with letter X and will do whatever it takes to get $X ticker. As you know, that recently became available with US Steel being acquired by Nippon Steel. Historically, 1-2 letter tickers were reserved for NYSE, but that has changed in recent years so Nasdaq is possible.
(3) Everyone moves to Nasdaq now, desiring $QQQ inclusion and similar tag-along valuation boosters, but I'd actually give 70/30 odds of SpaceX going on NYSE, if it goes on one of these two. $ICE owns NYSE and is still founder-led by Sprecher, who isn't playing around.
(4) The new Texas Stock Exchange, which aims to come online in 2026, would no doubt do anything to land SpaceX stock debut. To accomplish that, they would have to actually pay SpaceX vs. the other way around. Giving them an ownership stake and/or rebating trading fee revenue back to SpaceX (the latter of which NYSE will also dangle as incentive).
(5) If Texas Stock Exchange doesn't land SpaceX IPO, good odds of getting them to jump ship in coming years.
(6) Despite an estimated TTM revenue (not earnings) of just $15.5B, SpaceX will land a $1T valuation. You will hear much talk of direct-to-cell using their new bandwidth (be careful $ASTS bulls), offering alternative to undersea data cables, and data centers in space.
The latter faces many challenges which are not obvious. Such as despite the extreme cold of space, heat dissipation in a vacuum would require potentially massive radiator systems, a major engineering challenge not yet solved. Nonetheless, the excitement of such possibility bolsters valuation.
Also, data centers in space are like international waters; a good way to get around data privacy laws. There is a market there.
(7) Despite their dollar values now being not too far apart, I expect my Rocket Lab $RKLB stock to be worth significantly more than my SpaceX stock on December 31, 2026.
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