Gold is up 61% this year. Gold miners are up 139%.
S&P 500 is up 13%. Nasdaq is up 17%.
"Well, nobody could've seen that coming."
Yes, you could have.
Gold alternated with stocks all throughout last year, and had been running ahead from July up through the election. Stock market enthusiasm, buoyed by TSLA and others, wore off quickly. By the second week of December, gold was back on top, hesitantly, and then firmly so by Christmas. January confirmed defensive rotations into utilities, then consumer staples and low volatility. And gold kept running.
As to miners?
Gold miners are surging right now because they’re finally getting the sweet spot of the cycle: gold prices are high, but input costs—like fuel, equipment, and labor—have stabilized or even fallen, expanding profit margins dramatically. Unlike the metal, which simply sits in a vault, miners turn those high prices into cash flow and earnings leverage; every extra $100 in gold can multiply profits several times over. After years of underinvestment and cautious capital discipline, balance sheets are cleaner, dividends are rising, and valuations remain far below historical averages. In short, miners are giving investors both the defensive upside of gold and the offensive power of operating leverage—a rare combination that makes them one of the strongest asymmetric plays in the market right now.
And from a technical standpoint, they hinted at surpassing gold last December, and cemented it mid-January.
Yeah, you could've seen this coming.