Joined July 2024
- Tweets 857
- Following 1,176
- Followers 2,493
- Likes 1,219
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Pinned Tweet
28 Oct 2025
I talked to @polymarketinfo a while back and it was fun
news.polymarket.com/p/286-to…
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Jun 15
Trump really put us through the ringer and it took a bit longer than expected, but I think this was a pretty good prediction.
Apr 14
It feels much more contrarian on twitter than in the markets, but I think the US and Iran will agree to a permanent ceasefire and opening of the strait in the near future.
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May 26
I was briefly quoted in this great article in the @NYTmag
“You can’t stop the noobs” — the newbies — “from buying literally worthless shares, over and over and over again, every single day,” a trader who goes by @semi told me. “You can’t stop them.”
nytimes.com/2026/05/26/magaz…
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May 26
me every morning before I check my pnl
God is the Greatest, God is the Greatest. There is no god but Allah. God is the Greatest. God is the Greatest. And all praise is due to Allah. God is the Greatest for what He has guided us to.
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May 18
Holy shit, he ended yet another war. Someone get this man a Nobel Peace Prize. ♥️ 🕊️
President Trump says he called off planned strike against Iran which was set for Tuesday so negotiations can take place.
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May 18
we're getting into the Fun Zone...
NYT/Siena poll | 5/11-5/15 RV
Generic congressional ballot 2026
🟦Democratic 50% ( 2)
🟥Republican 39% (-4)
——
President Trump approval
❌Disapprove 59% ( 3)
✅Approve 37% (-3)
(Change from January 2026)
nytimes.com/2026/05/18/us/po…
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May 15
Very sad. My life would be completely different (and probably just much worse) if I didn't religiously read 538 as a teenager.
May 15
ABC News has now taken all FiveThirtyEight articles completely offline. They now redirect to abcnews dot com/politics. A needless erasure of thousands of pages of knowledge.
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semi retweeted
People like me have been behind correctly calibrating all future events. It's been thankless work that's been wrongly attributed to the "crowd" (who are idiots). I'm happy to finally be recognized. You're welcome.
Apr 24
Polymarket prices are highly accurate in predicting future events. The source of that accuracy is less obvious.
In a new working paper, we find it is not the “wisdom of crowds,” but a small minority of informed traders.
Fewer than 3% of accounts appear to drive price discovery; most perform no better than chance.
The majority generates most of the volume but little of the information, effectively funding the informed minority.
Check the paper here: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.…
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Apr 22
Betting my 3k against @marcusabramovi1 's 1.5k that SpaceX acquires Cursor by the end of 2026
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Apr 14
It feels much more contrarian on twitter than in the markets, but I think the US and Iran will agree to a permanent ceasefire and opening of the strait in the near future.
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Apr 15
Step 1:
x.com/manniefabian/status/20…
The Hezbollah-affiliated Al-Mayadeen channel, citing a senior Iranian source, reports that a ceasefire in Lebanon will begin tonight.
"The duration of the ceasefire will be one week and will extend until the end of the ceasefire period between Iran and the United States," the source says according to the network.
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Apr 13
the market:
manifold.markets/diracdeltaf…
the social media post from the president:
truthsocial.com/@realDonaldT…
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Apr 12
Important US politics lessons to learn from Hungary today:
It looks quite likely (87% on polymarket as of writing) that the entrenched 16-year incumbent Viktor Orban will be defeated in the election today, and likely it will be by a healthy margin.
How was this achieved by the opposition? They united completely behind Peter Magyar, a former member of Orban's party who was the victim of a ridiculous scandal by the government. Magyar is an ideological conservative with a big tent coalition, tactically breaking with Orban on key issues while largely agreeing with him on nationalistic principles. Magyar will win ridiculous margins and record turnout with anti-Orban liberals even though he is quite skeptical of immigrants and refuses to support Budapest pride rallies.
If either party in America really wanted to become big-tent they would likely achieve similar results.
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Apr 11
a new round of talks has begun between me and Chatgpt 5.4 Extended Thinking
Apr 11
IRAN, US, PAKISTAN START NEW ROUND OF TALKS: IRAN'S FARS
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Apr 8
Quite wrong on the timeline but largely correct on the substance - I lost a lot betting on an early ceasefire but it's been very profitable overall
Feb 28
My base case for US-Iran war is it lasts a week or two, a lot of senior Iranian officials die, and Trump declares victory and demands Iran start negotiating a nuclear deal.
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Apr 6
The parties are hilariously bad at targeting election spending- maybe glance at the prediction markets before lighting 180m on fire
NYT: Where the main Senate Republican super PAC plans to spend
Republican-held seats
🟥Ohio: $79 M
🟥North Carolina: $71 M
🟥Maine: $42 M
🟥Iowa: $29 M
🟥Alaska: $15 M
---
Democratic-held seats
🟦Michigan: $45 M
🟦Georgia: $44 M
🟦New Hampshire: $17 M
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Mar 13
Why are the traditional election forecasters (eg cookpolitical) so bad? They completely disagree with prediction markets on many races, and the markets are just clearly more correct. In what world is GA-Sen a tossup, NH lean D and NE Safe R?
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Mar 13
This guy's Wikipedia page is a thoroughly entertaining read, it's hard to believe he doesn't have some kind of protagonist superpowers
Mar 12
BREAKING REPORT: An Israel-US strike on former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (near his Tehran home) reportedly acted as a "jailbreak" from regime control — rather than killing him.
The Iranian regime had already confiscated his phones & assigned ~50 bodyguards. The attack killed several guards; Ahmadinejad vanished & his location remains unknown to authorities (per The Atlantic report).
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Mar 4
1.5 years ago mention markets were a completely obscure market category that only true enthusiasts would ever use, now they're mainstream enough to warrant a senator trying to specifically ban them.
Mar 4
Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT) tells reporters his prediction markets bill will specifically ban trading on government actions, such as war-making or what politicians will say in speeches.
Also says it would include exceptions for financial markets and it will be intro’d this month.
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