TIM DILLON on the "passion" of New York Knicks fans "I really wish I had that passion for sport... because... it is fun to grab a stranger who is walking out of a game, who is rooting for the opposing team, and give them brain damage. It probably is fun" "Now, I'm morally against it. But I'm just saying I can't access that level of excitement, that level of devotion, where I go, So what if I go to jail for attempted murder? This is my team, and this is our night" "So if I happen to break someone's neck with all of my friends because we're stomping on their face outside of the Garden, that's just what we do" @TimJDillon

Former BlackRock fund manager Ed Dowd on what is and isn't "sus" about the SpaceX IPO "This... [is a] classic venture capital exit maneuver. The IPO is the liquidity event" "What's different... is they accelerated the timeline where the insiders can sell. That's a little... 'sus'" "[Also,] what is untoward about it, in many classic investors' viewpoints, is it's being priced at an outrageous multiple—about 95 [to] 100 times revenues. That's just absurd" "So I suspect this is going to do what a lot of IPOs do. It's going to deflate over the next six to 12 months and people will lose money who bought it here, as the insiders cash out" "[There's also] usually... a seasoning period for an IPO of at least up to a year [for the] NASDAQ[, but it] dispensed with that. The S&P was rumored to do the same thing, but the S&P decided, no, no, we're not changing our rules for Elon" "Also, the lockup period is accelerated way more than it typically is. So people are going to punch out of their shares" "What this means is people who have been in this company, employees, VCs, private, private family offices, they're going to get their liquidity" "I was talking to a guy on the Street a couple of weeks ago, and his fund sold it last year, and they thought it was already overpriced at $400 billion and so they're very mad at themselves because they got out before $1.5 trillion" "what's gone on here is absolutely absurd. It's worth $400 billion last year, now it's $1.7 trillion. What's changed? Nothing other than hype. So this is classic bubble behavior" "I have nothing to say about SpaceX the company per se... it could be a great stock at a much lower valuation, but it all depends. People have to separate the stock price from the company. Great companies and great stocks are two different things" @ShannonJoyRadio @DowdEdward

TIM DILLON on crafting an Iran War exit narrative "We don't have to give [Americans] an explanation... why we're leaving... they're trying to kill each other over a basketball game" "Why... do we have to be honest... Lie! And cowardly run away. And say that we did it. [Iran's] just decimated! We won" "It's gotta be better than threatening [Iran] over and over and over again and doing nothing" "[We can] just run away. It's OK. It's what America does. We get bored of these wars and we leave" "It's ra-rah in the beginning, but none of [America's wars] have a big, definitive end. They just go on, and on, and on. Is the Strait of Hormuz open? You stop caring" "The casualty numbers trickle in. They trickle in. There's a lot of gamesmanship at the Pentagon press conferences. They switch out a defense secretary here and there, a general here and there" "But most people check out. Most people are already checked out of the Iran War. They just don't care. They don't need a big finish" "This is all wars forever. They start really big. And everybody's excited... And then we usually declare victory prematurely, and then, over a period of years, we quietly kind of get out" "That's what we do" "Foreign wars are over. Civil wars are back!" @TimJDillon

Former BlackRock fund manager Ed Dowd on Larry Fink saying people's pensions will fund AI companies: "it's already happened" "The money's already been used. Your pension funds have already funded this" "Larry Fink is basically telling you what's already happened" "That's what private credit is. Private credit is opaque" "[But] private credit is shut down right now. BlackRock's private credit fund today, [and another] one... they're gating withdrawals" "that's why I'm so negative on the US Economy, because once credit turns, everything turns eventually, [and] eventually everything goes the wrong way" "That comes at the end of an economic boom. So we're already rolling over" "Equity people are always late to the party to figure this out. The fixed-income people are already pulling in their horns" "[But] the insurance companies have a lot of this dreck on their balance sheets. The pension funds own it through private credit funds and private equity" @ShannonJoyRadio @DowdEdward