The two only things in life that give me peace daily. Thanks for cuddling me every night, when I’m all nervous in bed, fearing what tomorrow might bring. Thanks for putting louder than my thoughts can destabilize me. I love you 💕

holy fuck RIP Oliver Tree

The NASA and NOAA model prediction runs show two possibilities: a fast, near direct hit (early June 8) and a slower, near flanking blow (mid-day June 8). It all depends upon how the coming storm interacts with the solar wind on its way to Earth. Nearby fast wind from multiple coronal holes will also play a role in deflecting and possibly tilting the structure on its side as it travels.

If the NASA model is correct, we could be looking at a G3 level storm. If NOAA is more correct and we get a slower, flanking blow, we will likely see a shorter G2 level storm. Of course, all of this depends upon whether the magnetic field orientation in the coming storm points southward (which we cannot predict before arrival). The previous set of storms this week hardly had any southward pointing field. That is why they fizzled out.

Heads up! SWPC as issued a G3 WATCH for June 4th and 5th!

Multiple Earth-directed CMEs and an X-class solar flare this morning. Space weather has really heated up today, and there are chances for mid-latitude aurora tomorrow (Thursday night) due to the forecasted impact of the M9.5 CME. Additional impacts may arrive from the M7.8 and X1 eruptions. AR 4455 still has energy for more flares, so the bonanza of space weather activity may just be getting started, we'll see! Update from when I recorded this video: NOAA SWPC has released their CME model likely incorporating the M9.5 and X1 eruptions. A G3 watch has been issued for tomorrow.

Wow, earlier on May 23 there was an ~X2 flare on the farside of the Sun according to Solar Orbiter STIX data. Here is the quick-look plot and approximate flare location. The source region appears to be just behind the eastern limb, so it will be rotating into our view soon.

Happy Goth Day!🦇

The CME from the M5.7 flare in AR 4436 is absolutely spectacular. Look at that thing explode! Too bad the AR is not in a more Earth-directed position (and that coronal hole just W of it is probably not helping either). The good news - this AR has a history of eruptive long-duration flares. It also produced an eruptive M2.7 while behind the E limb (the flare was likely larger, being partly hidden behind the limb). If it doesn't decay we could be in for more events and it will be rotating into an increasingly Earth-directed position in the coming days.

Ghost in the Shell (1995) dir. Mamoru Oshii

PLEASE, get comfortable with going to events, movies, concerts, coffee shops, museums by yourself so you don't miss out on life waiting on people

Woah! Stunning prominence lifting off the Sun’s northern limb. Spectacular eruption. No impacts to Earth anticipated.

With a bit of luck we are in for a sight like this (and maybe better) on April 4th, when comet C/2026 A1 (MAPS) passes perihelion. The excitement slowly grows as there are cues that the comet's nucleus may well be large enough to survive the extreme conditions at perihelion, buzzing the solar surface closer than the distance between the Earth and the Moon. With a bit of luck, comet MAPS will be the brightest Kreutz comet since 1970.

AR 4366 is looking increasingly impressive, now with two significant magnetic deltas in the intermediate part of the region (marked with rectangles). The active region is still developing and the chances of a major flare are increasing.

Sadly, a flux rope in the CME has come in and decided the fun is over. Regardless, a flux rope strength of nearly 100 nT is stunning! This may be a NWS rope.

Check out this BEAUTIFUL full-halo CME which has now cleared the CCOR-1 field of view. It is fast with a transit time of ~1.5 days. Preliminary models indicate an impact sometime Monday night (tomorrow!!!) and my guess is G2-G3 conditions are possible pending arrival at Earth.

A large, northern-hsmiephere filament lifted off today in a spectacular eruption. Take a look here at GOES SUVI imagery over the past three hours. This CME will not effect Earth, it's just another example of beautiful eye candy from our closest star :)

What the northern lights looked like to my eyes last night vs what my camera saw 🤯

Main takeaways: - A slight chance for a G5 exists if and when the next CME arrives, and if its magnetic field is Bz south - Likely two CMEs have already hit Earth - Another CME is on the way - G4 watch extended - Third CME may impact sometime in the next few hours to midday EST

Our first experiment with a video explanation of the activity was well received, so here is an update as we continue into the overnight to morning hours. We will attempt another update later on Wednesday if warranted. Stay informed at spaceweather.gov