Group Chief Economist, Capital Economics

Joined May 2012
16 Photos and videos
Neil Shearing retweeted
“A key question is whether that US block holds?” “America first really does in that situation become America last.” @ShearingNeil speaks at Policy Exchange yesterday on geopolitics and the splintering of the Global Economy 👇
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Neil Shearing retweeted
On today's show with @FrankCNBC: Markets: Scott Ladner Travel: Stephen Grambling S&P 500: @ShearingNeil Oil: Rebecca Babin Trading: @TiffanyInvests Reporting: @Silvia_Amaro, @berthacoombs, @Hugh_Son, and @sherman4949 See you at 5am ET on @CNBC!
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In his latest column Martin Wolf draws on our work on US-China fracturing. Analysis and data here - message me if you want access: capitaleconomics.com/publica…

28 Nov 2023
The US retains the economic advantage in its rivalry with China on.ft.com/3uD235e
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Yup
"Certainly, I think we'll be entering 2024 on a substantially weaker footing." - Neil Shearing, Chief Economist at Capital Economics Group trib.al/VBZk8V7
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From our US rapid on September CPI. Rise in core is all about shelter - which we know is about to fall... capitaleconomics.com/publica…
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Artificial intelligence will boost economic growth in the US and other advanced countries more than in China and emerging nations trib.al/aNBBLYc
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Yep. Best estimate is that half the effects of tightening have yet to be felt.
Neil Shearing of Capital Economics says we have yet to see the full effects of the previous tightening from central banks trib.al/ynff776
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Pleasure as always to chat to @mattmiller1973, @GinaMartinAdams and @dsassower. Tl;dr: China matters but not for the reasons you think, and don't expect fireworks from Powell tomorrow. (Cue fireworks.)
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Neil Shearing retweeted
"Jackson Hole, if you're a bond investor, is kind of the main event this week." - Neil Shearing, Group Chief Economist at Capital Economics bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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8 Jul 2023
The greedflation thesis “muddles inflation’s symptoms with its cause”, according to Neil Shearing of Capital Economics. Wages have tended to play catch-up with prices, not vice versa. economist.com/finance-and-ec…
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📢Annoucning our annual Spotlight project... This year we'll be tackling AI and the economic and market implications. I know, I know - not another report on AI. But what's missing on the macro front is a comprehensive framework to pull everything together.
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My note from this week sets out the key issues: capitaleconomics.com/blog/ho…

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Finally: we've been asking clients for their views on AI. Results so far: - Large majority think AI will be a genuinely transformative technology. - 50/50 split as to whether it’s a US-only story. - Large majority think a bubble is forming around AI Will continue to update...
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The debate around "Greedflation" muddles the distributional consequences of inflation with its underlying causes. Profit margins haven't expanded - but firms have been able to pass on higher costs. Which reflects the relative strength of demand. More here: capitaleconomics.com/blog/gr…

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Key chart from our latest round of chart packs:
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China's demographic problem in one chart
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This cycle - if you can call it that - has been unusual in a number of respects but one is that EM central banks have led the way in tightening and loosening. That's upturned the truism that EMs follow the Fed. Will publish something later...
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Here's that piece - including what I think is one of the charts of this tightening cycle. capitaleconomics.com/blog/wh…
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