You make your money on the Buy side of the deal.
I've been buying apartments for over 30 years, and right now I'm seeing something I've only seen a couple of times in my whole career.
You can buy commercial real estate today for about 25 cents on the dollar, well below what it would cost to build it.
Here's how that happened, and it's really just math.
Back in 2021 and 2022 money was cheap, so a $10 million building with a 3% mortgage was throwing off around $160,000 a year in cash flow, and everybody was happy.
Then inflation hit 9.1% in June of 2022, the Fed reacted, and rates climbed. If that owner had floating rate debt, the payment kept rising until the debt service ate the whole building, and a deal that used to cash flow is now losing money every month.
So now the equity is gone and the lender effectively owns the building, and that is exactly the kind of deal I want, because I would much rather talk to the lender than the owner.
Let me give you a real one. We just bid $8 million on 278 units in San Antonio, 5% occupied and owned by a lender.
I'll be all in around $16 to $20 million after the work, and that same property appraised at $45 million in 2021.
And the reason this matters so much is that we are also almost 4 million rental units short in this country, so once this distress clears, rents and values are going to move back up.
I did the exact same thing between 2010 and 2014, buying at 30, 40, 50 cents on the dollar, holding it, and managing it well, and for my family that turned into generational wealth.
So the lesson of course is that you make your money when you buy, and a window like this does not stay open very long.
Right now it is open.