HODGES: It will become very difficult for Russia to sustain the war, and even to protect Crimea or retain control of Crimea.
Russians will eventually say, “We can’t stay in Crimea anymore. We’re getting hammered every night. There’s nowhere to hide.”
You can’t fly out of there. You can’t resupply out of there. Certainly, no ships can operate from there.
This will be the cumulative effect of the destruction of Russia’s ability to export oil and gas, combined with continued increase in Ukraine’s ability to destroy Russian logistics with its mid-range strikes.
So, I think Crimea will not fall as a result of a D-Day-type invasion, but as a result of the integration of all types of manned and unmanned systems, special operations, long-range precision strikes, and so on.