On February 28, President Trump laid out five military objectives for the US war with Iran:
- “Destroy Iran’s missiles and raze their missile industry to the ground.”
- “Annihilate Iran’s navy.”
- “Ensure that Iran’s terrorist proxies can no longer destabilize the region or the world and attack our forces.”
- “Ensure that Iran does not obtain a nuclear weapon.”
- Prevent Iran from using “IEDs or roadside bombs, as they are sometimes called, to so gravely wound and kill thousands and thousands of people, including many Americans.”
Three-and-a-half months later, the US has achieved none of these objectives.
- According to US intelligence assessments, Iran has retained roughly 70% of its prewar missile stockpile and mobile launchers. Iran’s missile and drone production infrastructure also remains largely intact.
- US intelligence also concludes that Iran’s nuclear capacity remains broadly unchanged since last summer, with Iran still needing roughly a year to build a bomb.
- While the U.S. succeeded in significantly damaging Iran’s conventional navy, it did not weaken Iran’s capacity to impose maritime costs or disrupt ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.
- Iranian proxies (specifically Hezbollah) are still destabilizing the region.
- The threat from Iranian IEDs no longer exists because US troops have been out of Iraq for 15 years.
Indeed, the agreement reached this weekend with Iran only requires Tehran to reopen the Straits of Hormuz to maritime traffic ... an issue that arose solely BECAUSE of the war.
Then there are the enormous direct and indirect costs of the war.
After only three months, the war has cost the United States at least $30 billion in direct costs and the U.S. economy hundreds of billions in indirect costs.
It has killed and wounded U.S. servicemembers, damaged U.S. bases, depleted scarce munitions, raised energy prices, strained relations with partners, and left Washington scrambling to restore the status quo it disrupted. Even if there were tangible benefits to the war, the costs would more than outweigh them.
Even worse, the war empowered Iranian hard-liners, demonstrated its leverage over the Strait of Hormuz and, in turn, the global economy, and, because of the depletion of America's weapons stockpiles, has made it more difficult for the US to respond to future military crises.
This is worse than a failure. It is a strategic calamity.
Read the comprehensive report that we published at the Stimson Center earlier this month on the disaster that is the Iran War.
stimson.org/2026/is-the-iran…