Wave theory enthusiast. You have stumbled upon my journal during my Hero's Quest. Not financial advice.
Joined June 2022
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Will Cleave retweeted
Apr 17
I am estimating the target of 730-740 by measuring wave 1 of the rally beginning in October 2022. When you have an extended wave 3, wave 1 and wave 5 are related. I call these "sister waves". We require 5, 9 or 13 waves for completion. These are labeled with the following counts: 1-2-3-4-5, 1-2-1-2-3-4-5-4-5, and 1-2-1-2-1-2-3-4-5-4-5-4-5. Currently, we are on the 9th wave of the rally, which could signal imminent completion. $SPY
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May 6
The last wave looks like a clean & subdivided impulse. Completion could be Friday or Monday, but it seems like it needs to go a little further. $SPY
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316
May 6
Creeping into the target zone. $SPY
May 4
The light consolidation looks to be painting a corrective wave in preparation for an additiona move higher. This could be an impulse or an ending diagonal as it fits the criteria for the latter as well as it seems to be sub-dividing. An ending diagonal will churn to the upside; regardless, in terms of time, it currently looks as though the wave from the March 30 low will complete this week whether its an impulse or a diagonal. $SPY
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May 4
The light consolidation looks to be painting a corrective wave in preparation for an additiona move higher. This could be an impulse or an ending diagonal as it fits the criteria for the latter as well as it seems to be sub-dividing. An ending diagonal will churn to the upside; regardless, in terms of time, it currently looks as though the wave from the March 30 low will complete this week whether its an impulse or a diagonal. $SPY
Apr 30
Today saw confirmation of an addtional upmove that was expected (as noted previously and finishing the 5-4-5). This is a rally that will threaten completion of the strong bullish wave that began on March 30 with a total of 9 waves counted. Strong bearish divergence has emerged as the RSI goes back into overbought territory as well.
Wave 5 targets of a sequence that has an extended wave 3 can be estimated by measuring wave 1 and anchoring it to the beginning of wave 5 as shown in the screenshot. The target zone is 728.53-741.28. I am expecting 1 single monowave here, so its breakdown is probably the completion.
In addition, just to reiterate, this is a possible completion of the primary wave 3 that began at the October 2022 low. A move below the March 30 low at 629 will confirm this. $SPY
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Apr 30
Today saw confirmation of an addtional upmove that was expected (as noted previously and finishing the 5-4-5). This is a rally that will threaten completion of the strong bullish wave that began on March 30 with a total of 9 waves counted. Strong bearish divergence has emerged as the RSI goes back into overbought territory as well.
Wave 5 targets of a sequence that has an extended wave 3 can be estimated by measuring wave 1 and anchoring it to the beginning of wave 5 as shown in the screenshot. The target zone is 728.53-741.28. I am expecting 1 single monowave here, so its breakdown is probably the completion.
In addition, just to reiterate, this is a possible completion of the primary wave 3 that began at the October 2022 low. A move below the March 30 low at 629 will confirm this. $SPY
Apr 24
Wave journal update
The consolidation we saw and broke out of today is probably a subdivided wave 4 (visible a-b-c) of the extended wave (3).
I am making this assumption because the wave is not proportional to the extended structure. This means I am still waiting for an additional 3 waves (5-4-5). The break out is likely the beginning of this sequence.
A continued drop below the base created by wave 4 would invalidate this count. Inspection of the whole structure reveals 7 waves so far. $SPY
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Apr 24
Wave journal update
The consolidation we saw and broke out of today is probably a subdivided wave 4 (visible a-b-c) of the extended wave (3).
I am making this assumption because the wave is not proportional to the extended structure. This means I am still waiting for an additional 3 waves (5-4-5). The break out is likely the beginning of this sequence.
A continued drop below the base created by wave 4 would invalidate this count. Inspection of the whole structure reveals 7 waves so far. $SPY
Apr 21
So far, so good. Price action is following the proposed count fairly well. Expect 3 more waves for a total of 9 waves. The following waves will be labeled 5-4-5. The next high will finish off the extended 3, and an additional retracement and rally should conclude the impulse. This is a potential completion of the whole wave from the 2022 low. True confirmation of completion will not happen until the March 30 low is breached. $SPY
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Apr 21
So far, so good. Price action is following the proposed count fairly well. Expect 3 more waves for a total of 9 waves. The following waves will be labeled 5-4-5. The next high will finish off the extended 3, and an additional retracement and rally should conclude the impulse. This is a potential completion of the whole wave from the 2022 low. True confirmation of completion will not happen until the March 30 low is breached. $SPY
Apr 17
Analysis of the new rally so far - price is still in a single monowave, which appears to be wave 3 of 3 (likely the strongest of the whole segment) in a subdivided impulse. My estimated timeframe is still roughly the end of April or beginning of May for completion. Pullbacks look like buying opportunities for the moment. I'm suspecting bearish signals to begin soon (next week), but no sign of divergence yet. My target remains 730-740 with the current structure. $SPY
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Apr 17
Analysis of the new rally so far - price is still in a single monowave, which appears to be wave 3 of 3 (likely the strongest of the whole segment) in a subdivided impulse. My estimated timeframe is still roughly the end of April or beginning of May for completion. Pullbacks look like buying opportunities for the moment. I'm suspecting bearish signals to begin soon (next week), but no sign of divergence yet. My target remains 730-740 with the current structure. $SPY
Apr 15
Now that we can assume the market has finished a correction and is in an impulsive move, we can start to develop a count:
We can clearly see an impulse in the begninning of the move that I am labeling (1). There is a corrective move afterwards as (2), then a gap up with a small correction before an additional strong upside move.
The gap up and the small correction look to be a smaller degree impulse that is subdividing. I will label it as 1 and 2 respectively. We can expect the current monowave as 3, then an additional 2 waves (4 & 5) to complete wave (3). Then, expect another 2 wave to complete (4) and (5).
This should complete a 9 wave segement. We will have a clue at the end because price should begin to wane as shown in the attached chart. I will be keeping a close eye on this wave count, and post my analysis, as I expect the larger degree wave IV correction (wave beginning in 03/2020) to begin when this completes. $SPY
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Apr 17
I am estimating the target of 730-740 by measuring wave 1 of the rally beginning in October 2022. When you have an extended wave 3, wave 1 and wave 5 are related. I call these "sister waves". We require 5, 9 or 13 waves for completion. These are labeled with the following counts: 1-2-3-4-5, 1-2-1-2-3-4-5-4-5, and 1-2-1-2-1-2-3-4-5-4-5-4-5. Currently, we are on the 9th wave of the rally, which could signal imminent completion. $SPY
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364
Apr 15
Now that we can assume the market has finished a correction and is in an impulsive move, we can start to develop a count:
We can clearly see an impulse in the begninning of the move that I am labeling (1). There is a corrective move afterwards as (2), then a gap up with a small correction before an additional strong upside move.
The gap up and the small correction look to be a smaller degree impulse that is subdividing. I will label it as 1 and 2 respectively. We can expect the current monowave as 3, then an additional 2 waves (4 & 5) to complete wave (3). Then, expect another 2 wave to complete (4) and (5).
This should complete a 9 wave segement. We will have a clue at the end because price should begin to wane as shown in the attached chart. I will be keeping a close eye on this wave count, and post my analysis, as I expect the larger degree wave IV correction (wave beginning in 03/2020) to begin when this completes. $SPY
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333
Apr 14
It only becomes obvious after the fact. I am looking for a sister wave of the 2022 decline. This was a wave II, with the whole wave beginning at the covid low. I was expecting this latest decline to be wave IV, but it appears to be on its way to invalidation. New highs are ahead. This will be short lived - not to sound like a permabear.
On the monthly chart, I can clearly see 7 waves at the January 2026 top. Impulses require 5, 9 or 13 waves. So, this drop was wave 8 and the next rally will be wave 9. This actually reads as 1-2-1-2-3-4-5-4-5 (this is known as an extended wave). I was not astute enough to catch this beforehand.
We are most likely on the last wave 5 once we break to new highs. The rally could last for the rest of the month (no longer than 2 months) and challenge 740. $SPY
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