PMC COVID-19 Forecasting Model, Oct 7, 2024
🧵 1/4
540,000 daily infections during the "lull" between the 9th & 10th U.S. Covid waves.
🔹1.1% (1 in 88) actively infectious
🔹19 million anticipated infections the next month
🔹Higher transmission than half the pandemic
ALT Graph: 10 waves of the pandemic
Tables/stats:
Current Levels for Oct 7, 2024
% of the Population Infectious
1.1% (1 in 88)
New Daily Infections
541,000
New Weekly Infections
3,787,000
Resulting Weekly Long COVID Cases
189,000 to 757,000
Monthly Forecast
Average % of the Population Infectious
1.3% (1 in 74)
Average New Daily Infections
643,433
New Infections During the Next Month
19,303,000
Resulting Monthly Long COVID Cases
965,000 to 3,861,000
Running Totals
Infections Nationwide in 2024
220,311,000
Average Number of Infections
Per Person All-Time, U.S.
3.44
How Does Risk Increase with More Social Contacts?
Number of people | chances anyone is infectious
1 1.1%
2 2.3%
3 3.4%
4 4.5%
5 5.5%
6 6.6%
7 7.7%
8 8.7%
9 9.7%
10 10.8%
15 15.7%
20 20.4%
25 24.8%
30 28.9%
35 32.9%
40 36.6%
50 43.4%
75 57.4%
100 68.0%
300 96.7%
There is more COVID-19 transmission today than during 48.8% of the pandemic.