“Forget Hormuz, ferts are cheap again.” Not really. CRU’s latest charts show fertilizer and raw material prices are still far from comfortable across several markets. And this is happening in a part of the calendar that usually sees softer demand. #fertilizer #oatt

Statement by Keir Starmer, Emmanuel Macron, Friedrich Merz and Volodymyr Zelenskyy after their meeting in London tonight — calls for “direct dialogue between Ukraine and Russia - with active US and European participation - to bring about a ceasefire and support further negotiations” — stresses requirement for European involvement in any deal: “Europe had an important role to play in any settlement… They emphasized the inextricable link between Ukraine’s security, prosperity and sovereignty and wider Euro-Atlantic security” — announces plans for further military support for Ukraine and economic pressure on Russia at G7 and NATO summits. Welcomes Ukraine’s military success this year — sets five conditions for any deal with Russia: 1) First, a stop to the fighting. They called on President Putin to agree to an immediate and complete ceasefire.  2) Second, the current line of contact should be the starting point for negotiations. International borders must not be changed by force, and Ukraine’s sovereign right to choose its own security arrangements and alliances must be fully respected.   3) Third, Ukraine must have robust and legally binding security guarantees in place once a ceasefire enters into force, building on commitments made in Berlin in December 2025 and Paris in January 2026. This includes the deployment of the Multinational Force – Ukraine.   4) Fourth, Russian assets will remain immobilised until Russia ceases its war of aggression and compensates Ukraine for the damage caused by the war.  5) Fifth, that European security interests must be safeguarded in any deal.  Elements of any negotiation related to the EU and NATO would need the consent of the EU and its Member States and NATO Allies respectively.

Sadly, you are mostly in the wrong Andrey. Hopefully you'll heed my advice, because honestly you should know that. Jul/Aug/Sep is the period where over 50% of world grain production reaches peak agronomical risk at some point. That is also where vegetation vigor peaks for those crops. US Corn : pollination risk most of July. Direct yield impact (look at the NDVI chart of 2012 which is much below normal) US Soybean : pod filling risk over Aug/Sep. Direct yield impact. Chinese rice : heading/flowering in Jul/Aug. Key for heads per plant. Indian wheat/rice : grain filling Aug/Sep for kharif crop. Key for test weight and overall yield.

El Nino update. Godzilla is coming. Most of the world will see top quartile temperatures over Jul/Aug/Sep, which is peak vegetative growth season globally for grains, half the world oilseeds and also for sugar and rice in Asia. That means more evapotranspiration and stress on crops. India and South-East Asia will also likely see their weakeast monsoon rains in decades. This is happening while there's a shortage of fertilizers.

Could China run out of food #wheat in 26/27? Probably not but weather should be watched. ---- Reuters: * Heavy rains have hit China's #wheat belt as harvesting starts * Analysts estimate 4.8–10 million tons have been downgraded to feed use * Crop damage is expected to support imports, though any increase may be delayed. Not a big deal at the moment with 141 mmt crop but should be watched. In 2023 they had to downgrade ~20 mmt to feed use. Short term forecasts predict abundant rain in parts of wheat regions. #oatt #sizovreport #agwx

Of note: The cost of urea fertilizer in the US GoM (New Orleans benchmark) is down to pre-war levels of ~$470 per metric ton (down ~33% from a peak of ~$710 in mid-April). Urea prices also sharply lower (30-40% down) in Latam and Europe, although still above pre-war levels.

Stairs up. Elevator down. But this one has no brakes. Sep CBOT #wheat is approaching its April low. Shortly after the China commitments story, we flipped bearish - but we did not expect the sell-off to be this brutal. Nearly 15% down in two weeks. The next question: when does this become a buying opportunity? Our view: sizov.report/?utm_source=twi… #oatt #agwx #sizovreport