Commodity Portfolio Manager - Systematic mid-frequency futures & options - Switzerland - Options - Quantitative trading - Data driven
Joined February 2012
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Commodity "Widow-Maker" Trades - A comprehensive field guide
A "widow-maker" is a trade that looks attractive on paper (mean-reverting, carry-positive, statistically cheap, or seasonally obvious) but has a long, nasty left tail driven by structural asymmetries: storage/delivery mechanics, weather, political risk, illiquidity, or short-gamma dynamics. The common thread is bounded upside, unbounded downside, and a payoff profile dominated by rare but catastrophic events.
Starting a little thread.
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Yet another commodity guy retweeted
10h
The very bold, borderline silly, but maybe enlightened move would consists in banning OpenAI and Anthropic on EU soil.
I hate the idea of a EU AI firewall. Because I hate the idea of a firewall.
But.
The important thing to understand is that creating a great model is 1- pre-training (mostly commoditized), 2- mid-training which is about making useful representations emerge about the tasks we care about. Done mostly with masked training on user trajectories. Aka usage data. And 3- post training which consists in aggregating and leveraging useful RL environments, which is capital intensive but « buyable ».
The mid training part can’t be bought.
The US have the usage from all over the world, and China has usage from its country driven to its labs thanks to their firewall.
What is left to EU?
Peanuts.
In a world where the US can shutdown models on us we need to fix this. Which means driving usage to EU labs so that we can train frontier models. I hate it but the most efficient lever seems to be banning US labs.
I would hate to not have access to Claude code. But I would love to share my struggle with labs that operate on my national or supernational soil. Especially if this (and I think it does) means catching up the frontier within a year.
Are there efficient alternatives? How bad would it get if we would pull the trigger? For how long?
15h
Time for France and Europe to wake up.
Every doomer tv show, blog post or prediction piece of the last 5 years starts with something that looks like this event.
Right now we need a de Gaulle moment, politics bold enough to ensure at any cost that we have the means to control our future.
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Elite trolling.
Seems Amazon guys snitched on A thropic.
Also remember there are oil deposits under the LinkedIn HQ.
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Welcome to da club, Citrini !
The risk of the government deciding that a model is too dangerous should only add to the reasons why open source models running on local hardware can be a reasonable alternative.
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Europe should classify ASML/Zeiss/Besi/all the laser and CVD tech as a security concern and limit sales to factories and projects in European & allied countries only.
Time the go for the jugular of the US chip re-shoring ecosystem.
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Yet another commodity guy retweeted
Kimi 2.7 ranked 2nd after Fable 5 and before GPT-5 xhigh
We have re-run our ErdosBench smoke test on 14 problems with Kimi 2.7, Qwen 3.7 Max, Grok 4.3 and compared it with the top performers from previous runs.
Kimi 2.7 is amazingly good. More below.
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Yet another commodity guy retweeted
Jun 13
M3 would never 🙂↔️
As a matter of fact, the weights are now open, too.
huggingface.co/MiniMaxAI/Min…
Jun 13
The US government, citing national security authorities, has issued an export control directive to suspend all access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 by any foreign national, whether inside or outside the United States, including foreign national Anthropic employees.
The net effect of this order is that we must abruptly disable Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all our customers to ensure compliance.
Access to all other Claude models is not affected.
We apologize for this disruption to our customers. We believe this is a misunderstanding and are working to restore access as soon as possible.
Read our full statement: anthropic.com/news/fable-myt…
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Can't happen without congress' approval and unlikely to pass anyway.
Also would incentivize competing nations to actually poach, bribe or kill most US AI researchers.
Pandora's box has just opened you are not going to like what's inside.
What comes next:
The govt will rollout an emergency citizenship program for any foreign-born employee working in a lab contingent on them immediately moving to the U.S.
Everyone will be heavily vetted via the same screening construct already utilized by the defense primes.
Google will have to move the entirety of DeepMind to the U.S. and fire whoever refuses to relocate.
People will gleefully assume Demis will just start his own UK lab instead before realizing the next step is the US is about to gut foreign “unmonitored” access to compute.
You can pull a LeCun but you won’t have sufficient compute to do shit.
Greencards will be given to family members too.
Foreign govts will freak out when they realize what is happening. We are gatekeeping and hoarding intelligence preemptively.
Why? Because by GPT 7 France will be like “oh you just destroyed our services sector we are going to tax the labs to pay for the necessary benefits to prevent riots” and it’s a lot easier to do that if labs have critical employees based in Paris. Ditto for every other foreign nation.
Anyone acting like this is surprising is simply incapable of thinking four steps ahead.
We are going to see industries nuked over night. There will be civil unrest. The only way to navigate that is to tax and gatekeep. The only way you can tax something is if it lives in your borders. We are repatriating exposure points preemptively.
Compute gatekeeping comes next.
🫡
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Boom boom
Senior U.S. Official: The phase following the opening of the Strait of Hormuz will witness an intensive and simultaneous operation to clear naval mines
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Chinese open source models are now matching Claude Opus 4.8 in coding performance.
This US administration's pettyness will hand over the strategic victory to China.
You can finetune those open-source model to your specific / proprietary datasets and use cases and run them on hardware you control.
Who is going to use US models and hyperscalers if they are weaponized by the US government ?
Build local.
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USAF C5 Galaxy on short final for Geneva (above a cool Mercedes type 300 gullwing)
Guess some negotiations are happening.
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CNN: In recent weeks, Iran has intensified efforts to secure its stockpile of near weapons-grade uranium, collapsing tunnel sections and mining access points around the site.
The measures are said to have made access to the roughly half-ton stockpile significantly more difficult, complicating any future effort to remove or destroy the material under a potential U.S.-Iran agreement
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Make it 40b now that the US nerfed their own AI stack.
French startup Mistral AI is in talks to raise around €3 billion ($3.5 billion) at a valuation of roughly €20 billion, sources say bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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Yet another commodity guy retweeted
Jun 13
USAF A-10 Warthog returning to the UK from the Middle East, sporting multiple kill marks, including what appears to be a pair of Iranian IRGC-N fast attack boats.
📸Jess Pietschmann
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No API revenue for you, sir ! This is excellent news for open-source and non-US tech.
Next time, release the goddamn model and stop bragging about the security implications.
Jun 13
The US government, citing national security authorities, has issued an export control directive to suspend all access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 by any foreign national, whether inside or outside the United States, including foreign national Anthropic employees.
The net effect of this order is that we must abruptly disable Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all our customers to ensure compliance.
Access to all other Claude models is not affected.
We apologize for this disruption to our customers. We believe this is a misunderstanding and are working to restore access as soon as possible.
Read our full statement: anthropic.com/news/fable-myt…
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Yet another commodity guy retweeted
Jun 12
The UAE is releasing billions of dollars to Iran as part of a deal to reduce bilateral tensions and assist with reopening the strait.
It could be as much as $20 billion. $3 billion has already been delivered, confirming rumors from earlier this week.
The move comes after the emirates emerged as the single largest target for Iranian missiles and drones during the war.
From confrontation to accommodation. reuters.com/world/middle-eas…
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Don't forget, the vote is this weekend.
There's a vote in Switzerland in two weeks about capping the population to 10 mln.
The polls are uncertain. If that vote was to pass it would damage the CHF value, just like Brexit damaged the GBP.
You can enter a USDCHF or EURCHF 25 delta risk reversals relatively cheap at the moment, as a protection or a play.
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As Ras Laffan is in semi-mothballed state, will it be allowed to restart before Assaluyeh is repaired ?
Jun 12
This was widely rumored during the war, but has now been publicly confirmed:
Qatar struck a deal with Iran, shutting down gas production, in exchange for an agreement that Iran would refrain from further strikes on Ras Laffan. washingtonpost.com/world/202…
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