Oil at $500/bbl in 2030? Possible? Read on (Courtesy a note posted by
@riteshmjn )
-Currency Research associates came out with a note in October, where they predicted a $500/bbl oil price in 2030, which was posted by Ritesh Jain a few days earlier. They argued that their bullish long-term outlook for oil prices (predicting a potential 60% rise in the gold/oil ratio, and extreme scenarios like oil reaching $500/barrel by 2030) did not rely on unexpected geopolitical events, such as the unforeseen attack on Iran on February 28, 2026, which caused a recent oil surge.
Critically, the IEA highlights an imminent risk of "Global Peak Oil" supply due to natural decline in existing fields (geophysical limits after ~50% extraction, with accelerating decline rates averaging ~6% per year across thousands of fields). They argue, without massive new investments in production and extraction methods, global oil output would decline sharply. For reference, in 2024, 80% of oil and 90% of gas production came from post-peak fields, with declines accelerating and already equating to a ~6 million b/d annual loss relative to global needs (106 million b/d). This supply-demand mismatch (demand growing or stable, supply at risk of peaking/declining without huge capex) supports the view that oil prices could rise dramatically in 2025–2026 and beyond, with historical precedents for 1,150% gains occurring twice since 1970.