Naphtha is sliding toward contango in Europe and the floor is nowhere in sight. Geopolitical hopes are fading. Europe's July/August timespread has collapsed to $7/mt, its weakest since the Iran conflict began and down $40/mt cumulatively. The arb East of Suez isn't flowing in enough volume to support Europe. ▸ July/August timespread at $7/mt. Down $40/mt from the $100/mt levels seen for April and May. ▸ E/W stuck at ~$30/mt, too narrow to drive meaningful West-East arb flow. ▸ August arbitrage looks better on paper, but the July dynamic suggests the market will correct again. Read the full naphtha analysis here: spartacommodities.com/market… Get forward-looking insights straight to your inbox: spartacommodities.com/market… #oilmarkets #oiltrading #commoditytrading #oott #naphtha

The peace deal merry-go-round continues. Cushing near its floor. Every diesel arb into Europe shut. Atlantic VLCC tonnage at record levels. Hormuz flows picking up, risk remains elevated. Yesterday we launched the first edition of our weekly newsletter, bringing you the essential analysis from Market Outlook over the past week. Read the first edition here 👉 linkedin.com/pulse/market-ou… Get forward-looking insights straight to your inbox: lnkd.in/eKPb2-Dp #oilmarkets #commoditytrading #oott

China cut crude imports 29% in May. Cushing is near its operational floor. Sing VLSFO fundamentals supportive. Asian refineries are running lighter crudes after the Hormuz closure. India and South Korea are capturing heavier alternatives. Read the full June APAC Chart Pack here: spartacommodities.com/market… Get forward-looking insights straight to your inbox: spartacommodities.com/market… Authored by @JuneGoh_Sparta #oott #oilmarkets #crudeoil

Singapore oil product stocks have hit a 13-year low. The supports holding this market together are temporary. Reuters today, with analysis from James Noel-Beswick, Head of Commodities at Sparta. ▸ Combined stocks at 34.41 million barrels, lowest since July 2013. Residual fuel at 14.84 million barrels, an eight-year low. ▸ "Recent flows have been stabilised by heavy U.S. exports and vessel repositioning, but these are temporary supports." June Goh ▸ "Key hubs are nearing operational minimums, and geopolitical risks around the Strait of Hormuz remain unresolved." Read the full article here: reuters.com/business/energy/… #oott #oilmarkets #singapore #commoditytrading

Ships are flooding the Atlantic from MRs to VLCCs and freight rate swings are getting wilder. Gulf oil flows have shrunk. Vessels are repositioning into the Atlantic, chasing the best earnings. The imbalances are severe. @SpartaFreight on Trade with Conviction. Full episode: spartacommodities.com/market… Get forward-looking insights straight to your inbox: lnkd.in/eKPb2-Dp #oott #freight #oiltrading #commoditytrading #oilmarkets

The HOGO can't open arbs into supply-starved Europe. The premium cannot hold. US distillate stocks are acutely thin and USGC MR diesel arbs into Europe are firmly closed. TC14 and the HOGO are the blockage. Singapore diesel is weakening. Singapore Jet not so much. ▸ WCI LR2 diesel pointing East; jet pointing West. Diesel weakness in the East, diesel strength in the West. ▸ Singapore regrade at its seasonal maximum; Jet E/W gaining. Jet is outperforming diesel. ▸ HOGO remains a sell. The reckoning arrives after ICE GO expiry. Read the full distillates analysis here: spartacommodities.com/market… Get forward-looking insights straight to your inbox: spartacommodities.com/market… #oilmarkets #oiltrading #commoditytrading #oott

China stopped buying WAF crude - and it's now showing up in Atlantic freight. Suezmax fixings are soft, WAF premiums have dropped, and @JuneGoh_Sparta says the pattern has persisted into a second trading period. This isn't a one-month blip. 🎧 spartacommodities.com/market… #oott #crudeoil #oilmarkets #oiltrading

Iran's leverage over oil markets is slowly being eroded. Hormuz transits are growing - including dark vessels. @NGCanalyst explains why the US may be letting this play out deliberately, and what it means for oil when Iran comes back to the table. 🎧 spartacommodities.com/market… #oott #crudeoil #oilmarkets #oiltrading

MR freight spiked and closed almost every arb out of the US Gulf - Europe, east and west LATAM. @SpartaFreight says rates at these levels aren't sustainable. The number to watch: ~$265 to reopen arbs, including US diesel into Northwest Europe. 🎧 spartacommodities.com/market… #oott #commoditytrading #oiltrading #oilmarkets

ARA blend margins hit their lowest since the conflict began. EBOB may have found its floor. TC14 easing has let Houston retake market share into LATAM, USWC, and EC Mexico. ARA's E/W strength is cutting Singapore 92 out of July delivery windows. ▸ ARA E5 blend margins at their lowest since early April; gas-naphtha spread narrowing implies EBOB floor. ▸ TA arb closed for all European exporters into NYH; PADD 1 inventory higher, reducing import need. ▸ July Singapore 92 E/W bearish as ARA undercuts into Australia; EBOB Jul/Aug time spreads the cleaner long. Read the full gasoline analysis here: spartacommodities.com/market… Get forward-looking insights straight to your inbox: spartacommodities.com/market… #oilmarkets #oiltrading #commoditytrading #oott

ARA jet stocks are exceptionally low - but is that actually a tradeable signal? @NGCanalyst explains why ARA may not represent the broader European jet picture right now, and why the US jet arb being closed makes this even harder to read. 🎧 spartacommodities.com/market… #oott #oilmarkets #commoditytrading #oiltrading

The fuel oil 0.5 east-west has collapsed from $97-105/t to ~$55/t in days - below physical freight cost. The arb is closed. @JuneGoh_Sparta explains why supply from the west into Singapore is set to thin from July, and what's happening with gasoline arbs opening into Australia at the same time. 🎧 spartacommodities.com/market… #oott #fueloil #oilmarkets #commoditytrading

Physical crude premiums have collapsed from record highs. The inventory math hasn't. @Bloomberg today, with analysis from @NGCanalyst, Head of Research at Sparta. ▸ Dated Brent near $98, Dubai near $94. Both down from post-conflict peaks above $140 and $160. ▸ "We are likely still drawing quite hard on global oil inventory, which can only be ignored for so long." Neil Crosby ▸ Kazakhstan CPC blend offered at a four-year low without buyers. Angola's Dalia at a $1.80/bbl discount, from a $10.60 premium in mid-April. Read the full article here: bloomberg.com/news/articles/… #oott #crudeoil #oilmarkets #commoditytrading

Hormuz transits begin to gather steam with expectations now running high. Meanwhile Atlantic Basin vessels stack up just as the US export machine begins to slow down. @NGCanalyst, @SpartaFreight, and @JuneGoh_Sparta on what the data says: ▸ Cushing approaching its floor – the WTI Afra arb to Europe has already started to close off. ▸ Too many VLCCs, not enough cargoes – the Atlantic tonnage trap. ▸ PG crude softens on more transits through the Strait - but risk of an Iranian reaction is still running high. Listen to the full episode here: spartacommodities.com/market… #oott #oilmarkets #freight #commoditytrading #crudeoil

The market says "enough oil." The data disagrees. US commercial crude stocks draining fast. SPR flows to Europe already drying up. WCS diffs strengthening at pace. The US export machine is running on empty. The rest of the market is about to feel it. Hormuz is still a live risk. Iran's next move is still ahead of us. @NGCanalyst walks through the risk to markets this month. Read the full analyst brief here: spartacommodities.com/market… Get forward-looking insights straight to your inbox: lnkd.in/eKPb2-Dp #oilmarkets #crudeoil #oiltrading #commoditytrading #oott

WTI Afra arb to NWE is shut. I repeat, WTI Afra arb to NWE is shut. #oott

19 vessels in the ECSAM prompt window against a 90-day average of seven. The highest count since tracking began. Charterers have never had more choice. Five Brazil fixtures in seven days has made no dent in the vessel supply. Freight is undervalued, but the tonnage overhang is too large to clear. ▸ WAF list at 22 VLCCs; USGC at 9 VLCCs vs 90-day average of 6. ▸ Freight RBIs across Atlantic regions are undervalued. ▸ Near-term rate direction remains soft due to excess tonnage. Read the full VLCC analysis here: spartacommodities.com/market… Get forward-looking insights straight to your inbox: spartacommodities.com/market… #freightmarkets #vlcc #oott #oiltrading

ECSAM VLCC count at 19 against a 90-day average of 7; the highest on record since tracking began, up from just 4 on 20 May. WAF at 22, USGC at 9 vs 6 average. Five Brazil-to-East fixtures in the past week; Acrux at WS 113, Princess Vanya at WS 125, genuine demand, but nowhere near enough to clear the overhang. No WAF VLCC fixtures in a week, no segment switching from Suezmaxes. ECSAM freight undervalued at -$16.37/mt. The physical VLCC displacement away from the AG is proving too much for the Atlantic to absorb. Charterers in control with lots of vessel options.

TC2 rates are bleeding lower despite some of the widest NWE loading arb margins of the year. Amsterdam to Offshore Lome gasoline wide open in June, Rotterdam to New York heavy naphtha at $27.40 cpg, Amsterdam to Argentina mogas at $14.65 cpg, Amsterdam to Montreal mogas at $9.05 cpg, Rotterdam to Offshore Lome diesel at $18.75/mt. The arb outlook is bullish for cargo demand, yet TC2 continues to soften. The Rotterdam to New York RBOB arb is closed at -$3.00 cpg though. Excess NWE MR supply cannot be absorbed fast enough for arb-driven cargo demand to clear the list.