Joined November 2010
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Photos and videos
“Are prediction markets causing more harm than good?”
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To what extent is it true that “All intelligence, human or artificial, must extract structure from correlational data”?
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Jazz and quantum mechanics: Eventually Dmitri realized that they are kind of similar
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Adjusting for nonrepresentativeness in continuous norming using multilevel regression and poststratification.
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“The Data Analyst’s Guide to Cause and Effect”
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From a message I sent to a potential co-blogger
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Survey Statistics: should MRP workflow include LOCO-CV ?
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Naming a jail after a convicted criminal
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Stein’s method, learning and inference -or- how to really monitor convergence and thin chains
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Podcast coming on Bayesian workflow! With a contest!
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Scott Alexander as a modern-day Edmund Wilson
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When is detecting AI-generated text worthwhile?
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What is the relation between interactions in a regression model and correlations among the predictors?
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Old posts on the Monkey Cage blog, also something about Israel and Hamas
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Against shallow anti-rational humanism
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Epidemiologist Donna Spiegelman sez: SUTVA is “mostly not necessary for valid causal estimation and inference most of the time”
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Survey Statistics: it is (still) the people
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Say what you want about this junk survey, at least it’s more plausible than other hyped claims like the hyperloop or the idea that UFOs are space aliens!
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Noem’s Razor and why I think the concept of “unintended consequences” is overrated
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“Rationally Turbulent Expectations”
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