4 Quarterbacks by the Numbers
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1. Bo Nix
- Denver has been more pass-heavy since J.K. Dobbins' injury, ranking 2nd in Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) in their last three games.
- They're also playing fast, ranking 2nd in neutral situation pace, which boosts PROE (a blend of PROE and neutral pace).
- Denver used no-huddle at a 16.9% rate last week, a 10% increase from their season average.
- Bo Nix's pass attempts have risen 25% (from 30.8 to 38.5 per game), leading to an average of 282.5 passing yards and 18.5 fantasy points per game.
- Nix has averaged 21 FP/g in 14 home starts, a 28.6% increase over his road production.
- Jacksonville is last in QB Pressure Rate and allows 39.5 pass attempts per game (2nd most in the league), which bodes well for Nix’s performance.
2. Justin Herbert
- After the bye, Herbert has averaged only 25 pass attempts per game due to reliance on the run game.
- Herbert broke his left hand post-bye but still performed well in a tough matchup vs. KC (completing 65.5% of passes).
- Dallas (DAL) is 32nd in FP per game allowed to QBs, giving up 25.3 FP/g, which is 14% more than the next team.
- DAL has allowed 8.25 yards per pass attempt over their last three games (compared to 7.13 YPA for the season).
- With Quinnen Williams in concussion protocol and Dallas secondary injuries (e.g., Darond Bland OUT, Trevon Diggs on IR), Herbert may have more time in the pocket.
- DAL averages 31 points per game at home, which could force Herbert to air the ball out more.
3. Jacoby Brissett
- Brissett averages 43 pass attempts per game, with 28 completions and 300 passing yardsper game, leading to 2 passing TDs per game.
- He has the highest accuracy rate in the league (70.3%) and has posted 9 straight games with 20 DK points.
- Arizona’s defense is weak, and their run game is decimated (Bam Knight injury), leaving Brissett in a position to attempt 40 passes.
- Atlanta allows 41.2 pass attempts per game, ranking 3rd in Opponent Passing Yards Percentage. They have allowed 2.8 passing TDs per game at home.
- With CB Mike Hughes OUT and other backups in the secondary, Brissett has a favorable matchup against a weakened pass defense.
- Despite strong stats, DraftKings lowered Brissett’s price to $5.3k, adding value.
4. Aaron Rodgers
- Pittsburgh has been passing at the 2nd-highest neutral rate (60.7%) and ranks 3rd in Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) in the last three games.
- Rodgers has been very efficient with 8.3 yards per attempt (YPA) and completing 75.5% of his passes in the last two games.
- Rodgers has the quickest time to throw in the league over the last three games (2.47 seconds), avoiding pressure.
- Detroit plays heavy man coverage, allowing a 110 passer rating against it. Rodgers has a 116.7 passer rating against man coverage in his last three games.
- The Tush Push by Pittsburgh limits Rodgers' rushing TDs, but they are still vulnerable through the air in man coverage.
- Detroit has been hit hard by injuries in the secondary, which could allow Rodgers to exploit their defensive gaps.
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