Joined May 2020
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Follow me. Follow me to freedom!
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This is the next effect of mass-accessed prediction markets: reflexivity Soros writes about this extensively. The markets are about to become so large & influential that they alter real-life events & behavior just as real-life behavior & events effect the markets. Incentives.
Missed this... "The Institute for the Study of War disavowed the edit, removed the employee, but is staying quiet, raising questions about the credibility of ISW and prediction gambling" Think tanker altered Ukraine war map before big Polymarket payout responsiblestatecraft.org/is…
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Why do Amazon sports broadcasts sound like laptop speakers? NFL and NBA Cup audio both suck, been like this a year sacrilegious to do Nas like this
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phenomenal post human nature is becoming less understood (and discounted) in new world emphasizing cold quantification
9 Dec 2025
lately f1 explains psychology rly well. he was hated because he embodied dominance without vulnerability. zero jeopardy >narrative becomes boring, predictable, and suffocating for everyone who isnt a rb fan. humans resent inevitability. they cheer for tension, not excellence.
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πŸ’―
Prediction, could obviously be wrong: Crypto's religious believers have done unbelievably well holding the core assets in the space from when total market cap was tiny up until now From here on, those who see the space as a PvP video game will be the winners πŸ–€ glhf πŸ–€
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SurlyBull.com retweeted
21 Nov 2025
YouTube showed me a message that it's the 1-year anniversary of our channel. Need to do more vids but in the last year put out 46 and it has 1,837 subs. I put 7 videos out last week in this playlist that are short descriptions of some key tools youtube.com/playlist?list=PL…
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SurlyBull.com retweeted
gian is a good friend and wonderful caring man who needs help
20 Nov 2025
someone in my family has been diagnosed with a tumor around the jaw/brain. the treatment costs are way higher than what i can currently cover and we are in a rush if you want to help, here are the wallets: sol address: 5o2My1xBtAwvmM4PdJfb1CCW6EnCsFagjqqm1rPTjnev eth address: 0x83e7E1EA4E0e5590AcDB1Dda89EAC327f84Ff3e4 if you cant donate, a retweet helps ton. if you want proof, Ill send invoices and updates privately, but if you know me, you know i dont fuck around with this stuff Genuinely, thanks a lot.
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SurlyBull.com retweeted
20 Nov 2025
someone in my family has been diagnosed with a tumor around the jaw/brain. the treatment costs are way higher than what i can currently cover and we are in a rush if you want to help, here are the wallets: sol address: 5o2My1xBtAwvmM4PdJfb1CCW6EnCsFagjqqm1rPTjnev eth address: 0x83e7E1EA4E0e5590AcDB1Dda89EAC327f84Ff3e4 if you cant donate, a retweet helps ton. if you want proof, Ill send invoices and updates privately, but if you know me, you know i dont fuck around with this stuff Genuinely, thanks a lot.
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just like everything is computer, everything is broScience too. πŸ’»πŸ‹οΈβ€β™‚οΈ
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Bragg tings
Hellyea. Thank you internet.
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Big10 sold itself to UCali pension fund to pay for this
12 Oct 2025
🚨BREAKING: James Franklin will make over 20 THOUSAND DOLLARS PER DAY from Penn State for the next six years. β€’ Per minute: $15 β€’ Per hour: $913 β€’ Per day: $21,917 β€’ Per week: $153,846 β€’ Per month: $666,666 The greatest gig in the world. Getting fired as a head coach. πŸ‘€
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This is how markets work and a large part of the reason they can outperform polling. The interesting/scary next phase will be what happens when the market shapes the outcome instead of the outcome shaping the market.
The other day a student asked me about the prevalence of insider trading in prediction markets. I now have an answer.
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How often does media debate athletes as good/bad role models? Two of the best stories all year with the potential to change lives. Real role models with courage to share their pain & redemption. AI's words ring so true. Inspirational stories from two all-time greats.
Removing the stigma, acknowledging it yourself, and letting others know publicly makes all the difference πŸ™πŸΎπŸ™πŸΎπŸ™πŸΎ
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Inspiring and so admirable. Good for you CC. Heart on the mound, heart in life. ✊
10 YEARS SOBER πŸ™πŸΎ I would’ve never imagined being here today after hitting rock bottom checking into rehab the night before the 2015 postseason. Early in my career, alcohol was a coping mechanism after losing my dad and navigating life’s ups and downs. Having the courage to tell somebody about my addiction changed my life. My thoughts go out to anyone facing their own journey. Just know you’re not alone and asking for help makes all the difference. Thank you to everyone who supported me along the way.
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Read this and tell me if its a Huberman-style biohacker grift post...or a list of things the US military hard-codes into your lifestyle: (opinionated feedback & discussion is appreciated) -Wake up & go to sleep the same time everyday -ambulate outdoors around sunrise, direct sunlight -sleep hygiene: lights out, no phone, routinized personal hygiene -cardio with run club or supportive, motivated friends (unit PT) -program strength training & participate in sports (PT, unit events) -walk long distances preferably carrying weight (ruck marches) -look good, feel good (uniform inspections, grooming standards) -maintain a clean, uncluttered living space (room inspections, barracks cleaning detail) -eat 3 square meals a day (Dining Facility) -cultivate a social support system (teammates, battle buddies) -schedule routine & regular health checkups for maintenance, prevention, & early detection of problems (dental, medical, mental) -contribute to something bigger than yourself (brotherhood) -develop hard skills and leadership experience (profession of arms, rank/responsibility progression) -avoid drugs (drug tests, drug-free community) -limit alcohol (ok...no org is perfect) I could go on. But this list is non-controversial & near-identical to best practices recommended by health gurus & doctors worldwide. Explanation, beyond the obvious, of the value of these ingrained standards. Some of which have come under criticism: Convos lately about the irrelevance of physical fitness for military desk jobs overlook the fact that the military's purpose is to remain prepared to protect the nations security. The primary method the military does this is through maintaing a state of "readiness" or preparedness. Fitness is crucial to staying ready and able to respond immediately. Just as the military maintains equipment, it maintains its Service-Members. Mocking fitness relevance is worse than a bad look, its naive, arrogant, immature, & reveals an underestimation of realistic threats. A nation accustomed to technological dominance in war for the last 20 years over an inferior enemy reliant on improvisation & guerilla warfare, appears to me very complacent & naive about realistic odds of a near-peer war. Just ask Ukrainian and Russain soldiers how fun it is to be hunted down by drones. It wasnt long ago that we had a draft in this country. Consider that in a near-peer war that might be necessary. Cushy email jobs & office luxury would not be immune to finding themselves in combat. And even desk jobs on a military deployment are not safe from attack. My point is not to fearmonger. Only to remind that War has been forever. War is in man. We may be more civilized than our tribal ancestors, but the nature of our biology remains the same. Nature must constantly be prepared for the threat of conflict & war or survival is lost. Dont take survival for granted. This is not a war-hawk post. I'm trying to emphasize the importance of "readiness" & how fitness standards are important and why its unwise to mock them. Many may think Im delusional, paranoid, or a backwards thinker stuck in an outdated, obsolete, or even toxic mindset. But I think its relevant to point out that the popular trends in tech, bro-science, gym-rat, & looks-maxing - encourage & espouse the same recipe that the military has been force-feeding for generations to maintain healthy, capable, resilient fighters. Doubtful anyone reads this far, if anyone reads this at all (πŸ˜‚), but the dismissive mockery of military fitness standards is a dangerous & naive misunderstanding of real-world threats. And noone is immune from the risks of misguided assumptions of comfort & safety. The Civilan population should demand high fitness standards from its military, lest its lack of them cost us all our safety & prosperity. The military should demand high fitness standards as a primary way of achieving a state of readiness and preparedness to win wars. If the force needs to be reminded of the "why", its easily justifiable. Leaders should do that regularly without condescension to emphasize its importance & the role it plays in lethality. The sole purpose of every job field (public affairs, chaplains, legal, tech, combat arms, etc.) & section in the military is to directly & indirectly contribute to the lethality of the force in order to win wars and prevent wars. In a near-peer war everyone is target and everyone is a fighter. Fitness of the force is no antiquated concept. @infantrydort
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If I did not make it clear, fitness is not just about being able to perform physically, although I still think thats important for desk jobs... Its about maintaining health and welfare levels that allow people to deploy. Sick, depressed, injured, UCMJ-involved, domestic-problems, service-members are not deployable and unable to respond. Even an abscessed molar prevents service-members from being ready to do their job, which is why regular health checkups are required, tracked, & enforced - to prevent all manner of issues related to all facets of health. Health has a trickle-down impact on our lives & those around us. Fitness is a critical component of maintaining a large body of healthy people...at scale an unhealthy force means an untenable percentage of the force is unable to do their job. Everyone knows the health risks that come with being overweight, they are too numerous to list. It fails the entire purpose of being a member of the Armed Forces if you are unable to deploy. So while people get caught up with juvenile, "gotcha", complaints about why they are too smart for fitness tests, or for having to run an additional half-mile (I'm looking at you Air Force) the historical emphasis on fitness is founded on sound reasoning.
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SurlyBull.com retweeted
2 Oct 2025
Cam Newton did this three times a game.
I mean this when I say I GENUINELY don’t know if there is another QB in NFL history capable of a run like this. #BillsMafia
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Old Commander of mine used to close every Command & Staff meeting with his golden Army rule, "Dont be fat." One of best leaders I ever served under.
Imagine spending 30 years climbing the ranks of the U.S. military…medals, deployments, command…just to be summoned to DC so a former Fox News guy can tell you you’re fat.
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ppl might start to understand this better now with prediction markets life impacted by bets, bets impacted by life Reflexivity was always here but now its going to smack u in face first instead of just pick your pocket quietly
That 2min:20s video limit on twatter was really a scourge.
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Temptation/tendency to over-size positions makes discovering "edge" irrelevant for most. Even a savant like Soros concedes errors in sizing that sabotaged winning trades. You probably dont have a trading mind like Soros. Much worse, you may have pursued "trading" to overcome debt or escape financial limitations, in other words trading out of desperation. Desperation is not conducive to effective sizing. Noone wants to hear it but trade smaller. Trade amounts that bore you. Youll accelerate learning and avoid a LOT of backfitted delusion. Not to mention save a TON of money.
>Soros >all ining with retard conviction Yeah nah
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