Survation May Newsletter: Seismic Shifts From elections in Scotland and Wales to a finely balanced Makerfield by-election, our recent work has tracked a month of political movement. Beyond politics, our month involved new research for the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, tracking investor sentiment for HSBC, and welcoming Alina Vrabie as our new Research and Data Analyst. Read in full: mailchi.mp/survation/survati… Subscribe to our mailing list here: tinyurl.com/mr2a8vae 🧵 1/8

Makerfield By-Election Update: survation.com/makerfield-by-… Survation conducted a new poll of the Makerfield constituency. Fieldwork was conducted by telephone among 518 adults in the constituency between 26th May and 1st June 2026. A combination of landline and mobile data were used. Methodology Statement Population Sampled: All residents aged 18 living in the Makerfield parliamentary constituency. Total Sample Size: 518 Data Collection Method: Telephone interview. A combination of landline and mobile data were used. Fieldwork Dates: 26th May – 1st June 2026 Data Weighting: Data were weighted to the profile of all adults in Makerfield constituency aged 18 . Data were weighted by age, sex, ward and 2024 General Election vote. Targets for the weighted data were derived from Office for National Statistics data and the results of the 2024 UK General Election. Margin of Error: Because only a sample of the full population was interviewed, all results are subject to a margin of error. For example, in a question where 50% gave a particular answer, with a sample of 518 it is 95% certain that the “true” value would fall within 4.8 percentage points of the sample result. Headline by-election voting intention - Table V2 (likelihood-weighted, undecided/refused removed, no squeeze): Candidate / Party / Vote share Andy Burnham - Labour 49% Robert Kenyon - Reform UK 39% Rebecca Shepherd - Restore Britain 8% Sarah Wakefield - Green Party 2% Jake Austin - Liberal Democrat 1% Michael Winstanley - Conservative 1% Another party <1% Base: likely voters, factored by likelihood to vote, with undecided and refused voters removed Data tables are available here: cdn.survation.com/wp-content…

Makerfield by-election briefing. Data tables and all prior materials are on the link below: Points to note. *This is a poll of 505 people in Makerfield this week and should be seen as an indicative early look. *By-election headline voting intention with named candidates as were available is the 3 point Labour lead over Reform from table V5 *Reform (45%) have a 9 point lead over Labour on a generic Westminster polling question *Burnham has strong leads among women and younger groups, Kenyon fares better with older voters in general and leads among men. *How the Green and Restore campaigns pan out could be key. There's also at least a 7% Green Westminster vote share up for grabs. *Do get in touch if you have question or concerns and have a lovely Sunday! mailchi.mp/survation/whats-t…]

Makerfield: We provided an update to media yesterday as forecasts have been made by others in political data using Survation's "What if Andy Burnham Stood" polling - collected after the Gorton & Denton by-election - to show the effect the Greater Manchester Mayor could have on the race in Makerfield. The briefing document, estimates and methodology is linked below. cdn.survation.com/wp-content…

Makerfield by-election - our Chief Exec @DamianSurvation shares data with @LBC’s @IainDale on what the “Andy Burnham effect” might mean in a seat where Reform would otherwise be expected to do very well: