ACTIVE MONSOON: The latest seasonal outlook from NOAA is starting to paint a pretty interesting picture for Utah this summer. The July-August-September precipitation outlook is leaning wetter than normal across much of the Great Basin and Four Corners region…a signal that could point toward a more active monsoon season for Utah.
That doesn’t guarantee nonstop storms or an end to drought concerns, but it does suggest the atmosphere may be more favorable for moisture surges out of the south later this summer. More monsoon moisture would mean increased chances for afternoon thunderstorms, localized flash flooding, and a little more cloud cover during the hottest part of the season.
What really catches my attention is the bigger climate setup developing in the Pacific. We’re heading away from ENSO-neutral conditions and trending toward El Niño by late summer and fall. While El Niño has a stronger influence on Utah during the winter season, it can also subtly reshape the summertime jet stream pattern and moisture transport across the Southwest.
After a few quieter monsoon seasons recently, the long-range pattern may finally be tilting back toward a more active summer thunderstorm setup across Utah. We’ll see if the atmosphere follows through over the next couple of months.