Trade the Moment discord.gg/sG5cs9MEAv
Joined July 2025
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29 Dec 2025
introducing @synthesistrade public beta
trade the moment
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Jun 11
Mexico vs South Africa.
2010. Johannesburg.
Same stage.
Same result: DRAW.
16 years later. Same matchup.
Mexico win: 70%
Draw: 21%
South Africa upset: 11%
Mexico hasn't lost a World Cup opening match in 7 consecutive tournaments.
But the one time they faced South Africa at this stage, they couldn't win either.
What is your read?
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1,299
Jun 10
Trump announced Bill Pulte as Acting DNI starting June 19.
But the market — "Who will Trump announce as the next Director of National Intelligence by December 31?" — hasn't moved yet.
"No announcement at all" is still sitting at 19.4¢, higher than all the other candidates.
Aaron Lukas: 13¢
Elise Stefanik: 13¢
Richard Grenell: 12.9¢
Kash Patel: 0.3¢
What is your read?
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Jun 9
A market on Claude's unreleased model Mythos is up to 92¢ in just the last 3 hours.
Currently, the June 10 market is sitting at 17¢.
Claude Mythos has been locked behind Project Glasswing since April, used by 150 organizations across 15 countries to find vulnerabilities, and is finally being released to the public.
The rules say:
Open beta counts.
Waitlist counts.
Closed access doesn't.
One leaked report from a credible source moved this from speculation to 86¢.
What is your read?
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Jun 5
Will a province schedule a referendum
to leave Canada before 2027?" is now sitting at 96¢
Traders sold Alberta's independence market the moment a court issued a stay
12 hours ago the market was sitting at 74¢
Rules
- the rules don't require a successful referendum
just a scheduled one
- either binding or non-binding
The court stay paused the signature verification not the referendum itself.
October 19 ballot. Already planned.
The market knew before the headlines did.
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Jun 4
What changed in the last 24 hours?
White House tweet did not deny NYT's claims, just confirmed the review won't apply to all models.
Some traders misread - selective review and took the market to 65¢
Smart traders read the EO and market priced YES at 45¢
selective review ≠ federal review order
65 → 70 → 50 → 26 → 57 → 45 all in 24 hours.
Seems like traders have not understood the rules or EO.
Does selective review qualify? Share your reads 👇
Jun 3
Why No is still very much alive for Trump's AI federal review market at 58¢
"Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?"
The EO dropped today: "promoting advanced AI innovation and security"
Signed. Live. On the white house website.
In the past 24 hours, the market climbed to 65¢ and then dropped to 44¢.
This means the traders are not confident enough either for YES or NO.
Sounds familiar?
- Trump posts something.
- Market waits on exact wording.
- One phrase decides everything.
Read the EO yourself, link in the replies.
Share your reads👇
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Jun 3
Why No is still very much alive for Trump's AI federal review market at 58¢
"Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?"
The EO dropped today: "promoting advanced AI innovation and security"
Signed. Live. On the white house website.
In the past 24 hours, the market climbed to 65¢ and then dropped to 44¢.
This means the traders are not confident enough either for YES or NO.
Sounds familiar?
- Trump posts something.
- Market waits on exact wording.
- One phrase decides everything.
Read the EO yourself, link in the replies.
Share your reads👇
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Jun 3
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Jun 3
Trump posted "the blockade will now be lifted" last week.
And Polymarket said - not an announcement.
"Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?:May 31?"
May 23, market was at 83¢.
May 31, market came down to 0.
And Poly's clarification came back
- Ambiguous reason: the post was "subject to final approval"
One phrase buried in the statement changed everything.
Then 30-mins ago Trump said:
"COULD have blockade lifted by labor day"
Could vs Will
Same trap. Different day.
The June 30 market is sitting at 56¢ right after that statement.
56¢ on a president who already fooled this market once with his wording.
How do you trade a market where one WORD made 83¢ -> 0?
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Jun 1
Will MicroStrategy sell any bitcoin by May 31 flipped to Yes but now sits at 50% chance!
The bitcoin was sold prior to May 31st however it was just announced today.
A pre clarification has been issued for 1PM EST.
Jun 1
$MSTR - MICROSTRATEGY SELLS 32 BTC FOR $2.5M AT AVERAGE OF $77.135M: FILING
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Jun 1
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May 29
Israeli forces cross the litani river again by may 31 is sitting at 82¢ right now.
88¢ to 47¢ drop within an hour
here's the problem with YES:
crossing already happened north of the river
but traders say you can't prove a new crossing within the market's timeframe
Al Jazeera just dropped a report 1 hour ago, but can it be counted?
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May 28
Will internet be restored in Iran just jumped from 31¢ to 70¢ in 10 minutes?
Tehran is reportedly back online but traders are split on whether other regions have restored access.
Cloudflare and Netblocks the primary resolution sources are both updated however credible reporting has not caught up.
Only 3 days left.
YES or NO both are possible.
What is your read?👇
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May 8
A ceasefire has been declared but will a three day ceasefire resolve the market?
Lets see
May 8
*TRUMP: THERE WILL BE A THREE DAY CEASEFIRE
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May 8
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May 6
Barak Ravid moves markets.
A permanent peace deal by June 30 gained 43% as this article dropped
Peace in the middle east soon?
EXCLUSIVE: The White House believes it's getting close to an agreement with Iran on a one-page memorandum of understanding to end the war and set a framework for more detailed nuclear negotiations axios.com/2026/05/06/iran-us…
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May 6
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Apr 20
$AAPL has just named John Ternus as CEO, Tim Cook will remain through the summer
John was leading at 24% prior to the announcement
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Apr 20
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