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CTA positioning (green) hasn't tracked with the latest run up in $SPX (left chart) but were more on board the move in $NQ_F (right chart). At current price levels, I think this dip will start getting bought up soon (near the -5% on $ES_F which is the weekly low). Watching closely for CTA positioning changes over the coming days. There is fuel for the rally still, but I'm not suggesting fighting the current bear.

Despite the latest sell off in the equity market, the overall breadth is in a neutral place. The correction was needed on $SPX, $ES_F and $NQ_F. Interesting to see the 7210/25 level trade in $ES_F, this is a critical level that could hold off the bear and start the bull, or lead to bigger liquidation and weaker breadth for a big shakeout.

Got the trade of the day on $ES_F but was only able to get 2 / 8 filled. Here's the recap and what order flow told me. It's okay, remember, "partial fill, partial confidence", if you really had conviction you'd be all in. Fills are a mental process, not a technical one.

IPO stands for “it’s probably overpriced”.

Re: $SPCX Most retail traders FOMO’d into 2025 IPOs on day one. Here’s how that worked out 12 months later: $KLAR (Klarna): −61% $FIG (Figma): −72% $CHYM (Chime): −19% $MDLN (Medline): 28% $CRWV (CoreWeave): 133% The pattern is the same as it’s always been. Day 1 open = max hype, max risk, max spread, zero structure. The edge isn’t the IPO. It’s the lock-up expiration, when insiders flood supply and retail panics. That’s where you wait for the portfolio play. One winner (AI infra). Four losers. Sector matters more than hype.

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$ES_F conviction index is suggesting to press the edge today with normal to slightly elevated size. Overnight low took out the prior day low, while overnight high was below prior day high. $CL is pushing lower, suggesting risk-on in regard to Iran situation, while equities are firmly stronger with NQ leading the way. 10Y yields are lower also.

$ES_F market by order (MBO) activity is showing upside liquidity in today's open. There isn't any one concentrated level of selling intent, but the MBO is scattered to the upside. I think the bulls push higher first on the open, and it's most important to see how sellers respond to this rally. If they absorb buying we could reverse lower today, but if they don't show up on the DOM we could have a bull day above the 7480 level.

These are the kind of days you step on it and don't fight the trend. I didn't let a runner go as I had to step out at 11:30AM, but order flow gave me the right area. It's all good, these are peak emotional days for many traders, and being up any amount will feel like it's not enough. Live to fight another day.

Below 7215 on $ES_F the PPT (plunge protection team) will be activated.... calling it now lol.

How to execute with order flow on $ES_F to enter pullbacks: 1) The downmove gives you future rotation information. 2) The retest of that sell zone and rotation confirms the market is reacting before you start acting. 3) Place limits slightly below where sellers are reloading. 4) Take some P early to pay for the package, run and trail the balance of the position, tucking trailers behind future sell hold levels. Rinse and repeat. Don't fight the trend, surf the momentum wave at key areas the market reveals. Trade what you see, not what you think.

Daily correlations are risk-on, but the big test is the first 30 minutes of the US open in the $ES_F. $CL is pushing lower The 10 year yield is trending lower. $NQ_F is stronger relative to ES (bottom chart). $VIX is half way into the prior day candle Econ calendar is light. Looking for response from sellers, if they use overnight move to sell into, we can have a press lower. Key zone today is 7470/80.

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