Anyone trading on prediction markets should think seriously about the value of information, and how to measure distances in information space. In this post, we go over the basics. talarion.tech/blog/a-penny-f…

Is there anything you wish was trading on Kalshi or Polymarket right now? Get markets on ~whatever you want~, whenever you want. Liquidity comes guaranteed. priorswap.com/

If the purpose of prediction markets is to produce information, then insider trading should be allowed. The standard argument against insiders is that it scares off liquidity — but deep liquidity isn't particularly additive to price efficiency.

How much is all the information on Polymarket currently worth? And how would you monetize it?

Suppose you were the only person in the world with access to data from the Kalshi orderbook (don't worry about who's making the trades). What would you do with it?

Prediction markets as they exist today (large public orderbooks such as Kalshi or Polymarket) have a paradoxical relationship with information. On the one hand, it's the most valuable commodity that they produce. On the other, they can't sell it, and instead charge contributing traders for the privilege. We set out to change that.

At Talarion, we let you trade on whatever you want. We have the mother of all adverse selection problems on our hands. But the point is to lose money on the trades in order to generate valuable information. We set a prior and a spread on the markets we show you, because we won’t pay you for what we already know. We’ll pay for what we don’t. The information that you have and we don’t — that’s the product.

Know something that LLMs don't? Come prove it. priorswap.com/

What if every time you saw an LLM lose touch with reality, you could profit off of it? At Talarion, we're building an information marketplace to let you do just that. Here's how: talarion.tech/blog/tell-tala…

Who tried to build an information marketplace before 2020? And why didn’t it work?

If we don’t build a marketplace that connects LLMs to human tribal knowledge, AI won’t be able to make consequential decisions on its own for at least five years. They’re just missing too much texture.

We're living in the information age without any information markets. Nobody questions the value of knowledge, but until now, nobody has succeeded in making it a marketable commodity. Let's take a deeper look into some of the underlying challenges. talarion.tech/blog/facts-for…

Everyone's talking about building a reputation layer for predictions, and they should be. But how can you really measure forecasting acumen? In this post, we dig into what really makes a guess good. talarion.tech/blog/the-brier…

The ability to accurately predict the future has received shockingly little serious attention as a benchmark for LLM performance. Why do you think that is?

What's something you know about the world that a web-search enabled LLM can't find out?