TGEs have all become down only because all buyers are exhausted before the TGE itself.
The industry has become far smaller and with Echo etc and less formal syndication, almost anyone can invest early.
If you miss it, you can then buy the pre-TGE “ICO” rounds which are heavily marketed.
In other words, there isn’t a project that is hyped that you don’t have the opportunity to buy at least 2x before TGE.
IPOs work because they open up a new holder base (retail, public equities funds etc) but TGEs no longer open up new holder bases.
Arguably exchange listings are meant to open up new holder bases but how many traders that will buy esoteric altcoins on Binance are not already on CT and exposed to numerous opportunities to buy the same altcoin pre-TGE?
And is the net buy pressure from this subset of unicorn traders enough to offset sell pressure from your listing fees?
Unless we get another wave of retail onboarding (which isn’t happening if we keep raping each other), there simply isn’t “alpha” in gambling on new launches imo because our internal market structure is simply fucked.