The hot PPI is the AI capex, not the Fed. Bitcoin tracks the AI capex
May PPI rose 1.1% month over month against 0.7% expected, pushing the annual rate to 6.5%, the fastest since November 2022. Energy did most of the damage, gasoline up 23.4% on Iran oil supply risk, energy goods up 10.7%, final demand goods up 2.8%, the largest monthly increase since the series began in December 2009. Strip out food, energy, and trade services and the core is softer, 0.4% month over month, 4.9% year over year, both below consensus. The headline is hot. The core is not. The difference is the AI capex, bidding up the energy, materials, and labor that data centers, GPU clusters, and grid infrastructure need.
That changes the rate cut story. The Fed cannot cut into AI driven inflation because the AI capex demand is structural, not cyclical. It does not respond to higher rates. A 25 basis point cut would not slow a single data center build. The Fed is responding to a problem it cannot fix. Bitcoin tracks the AI capex flow, not the Fed rate cycle. The technical analysis of price action is using the wrong model. The 2017-2021 framework was halving plus rate cuts plus retail flows. The 2026 framework is AI capex plus corporate treasuries plus ETF flows plus the credit architecture Saylor is building. Same asset, different model. Kevin Warsh chairs his first FOMC meeting on June 16 and 17. Prediction markets price a hold as a near certainty. The Fed is structurally constrained. Bitcoin is too.