Reality shows up in language before it does in the numbers, so we built an early warning system to deliver risk signals to investors. telemetryresearch.co
$HSBC down 5% on credit losses 9% above consensus, driven mostly by one fraud-related exposure. Market punishing when lenders surprise on marks.
$HTGC has significant software exposure at risk from AI shareholder class actions. Earnings after the close today
$HTGC reports after the close today. If they simply repriced to where its peers trade, the stock would fall at least 25%.
- Critical report by @hntrbrkmedia dropped in Feb
- Class action followed naming senior mgmt personally
- Friday: CFO moving to President, new CFO
9) External pressure stack:
- @hntrbrkmedia critical report Feb 27
- Class action filed naming Bluestein and Meyer
- Friday: CFO moving to President, new CFO arriving in 2 weeks.
- Yesterday: $40M facility expansion to a medical device borrower announced. 1 day before earnings
Listen for:
- Who answers hard questions? "Before my time" from new CFO is a tell.
- Mark the software book, partially mark it, or hold the line?
- PIK comes up before analysts raise it
- Do they address the lawsuit Hunterbrook at all?
- Change in dividend language