My 2026 forecasts: GDP H1 lifts to 2.5%; sub 2.0% in H2 Unemployment rate to 5% Inflation eases 2.0 to 2.25% Wages growth soggy at 3% RBA cuts to 3.10% 10 yr bonds 4.00% AUD lifts to 75 c House prices – no change, downside risks ASX200 – below 8,000 youtube.com/watch?v=u6007K2J…

As the global oil price falls, it is perfect timing to end the excise cut on 30 June. The overall effect on retail petrol prices from normalising the petrol excise & the global price change is likely to be quite small.

Oil prices slide - was the RBA blindsided by the oil price blip? Oil prices are falling - around US$83.50 at the time of recording - on track to fall towards the pre-war levels of US$60 to US$70 a barrel. While no change in rates is all but certain at tomorrow's meeting, a scenario for a rapid fall in inflation & an interest rate cutting cycle should be considered by the Board & be ready to implement if recent trends in oil & the economy continue. youtube.com/watch?v=1bojAafQ…

Oil down to US$83.80 (Brent) - looks like the inflation issues were transitory. RBA reacting to oil looks to be another misstep. At least one of those 2026 hikes needs to be reversed in the near term

Fabulous win Australia - even more exquisite than it was against Türkiye Go go go

WHAT A GOAL!!!

Extremely poor form for Jennifer Hewett on #Insiders to shitbag the economy for slowing, when that is exactly what she had been calling for to help contain inflation. The tight budget is helping

Some utterly basic economics for those crying crocodile tears over the economy: Decelerating economic growth = lower inflation. That is where we are right now & the market, which is no longer pricing in a full interst rate hike, knows it.

Huge week coming: RBA interest rate decision on Tuesday afternoon. What credit will it give to the rate cutting scenario?

The softening labour market is a reason that will feed into interest rate cuts. The CBA Wage Insights data show annual wages growth tracking a tick above 3.0%. This is low & slowing & consistent with inflation running at or even below 2.5%. This, plus the fact that the unemployment is already tracking to fresh 4 1/2 year highs & job ads are weak, are a simple reason (among others) why there should be no more interest rate hikes & indeed, why the next move in interest rates is likely to be down. youtube.com/watch?v=re57cf2E…

Gross govt debt fell to $973.1 billion today. The govt will borrow $3.15 billion next week - there are no maturities.

Market getting close to pricing out any more interest rate hikes, moving to price in cuts. As the actress aid to the bishop, "It's taking a while, but we'll get there"

The rally in bonds continues: Implied yield from futures: 3 year 4.43% 10 year 4.83% As Deborah Conway sings, "it's only the beginning"

For those worried about the budget and goverment debt in Australia: Go back to your kennel.

Consumer confidence has increased by a chunky 10.5% since the Budget.

2028 US Presidential election betting: A very wide market. Newsom $5.50 Vance $6.00 Rubio $6.50 Ocasio-Cortez $12.00 Ossoff $14.00 Carlson $19.00 Buttigieg $23.00 Harris $26.00 DeSantis $26.00 Others $31.00

AUD 0.6995...

SQM data are showing broader falls in asking prices on a monthly basis. Enlightening is the move of the boom cities - Perth, Adelaide & Brisbane - to a posiiton where asking prices have fallen. Sydney & Melbourne continued to fall. One of the hot economic issues for the second half of 2026 & probably into 2027, is the extent of falling housing prices in this cycle & how that impacts the broader economy. Bottom line: It will be negative. youtube.com/watch?v=FPqYaFXb…

RBA meeting next week: With no change all but certain, the Board is likely to run through some scenario planning, including the circumstances where it will cut interest rates. That scenario, an extreme outlier a month or 2 ago, is now in play