MLB Tuesday Play of the Day ☢️ Justin Wrobleski O17.5 PO (-132 Pinnacle) ❤️ 100 LIKES FOR ANOTHER PICK played at .85u - Justin is a high zone rate/2-pitch/contact pitcher who is up against TBR who are the #1 contact team in the league, taking the least amount of P/PA TB has been batting above their expectancy this entire season → 7th in BA but the 9th lowest xBA and it's due to their ability to make consistent contact and out run the out at first → It's now G2 of this mini series and the Dodgers defense had time to adjust to their play style with lefty Eric Lauer on the mound yesterday → Justin has also pitched above expectancy all season with a .221BAA/.264xBA but he holds a low .268 OBP and it's because of his high zone rate/low 5.4BB% which means the Dodgers defense has kept his balls in play in check reflected by his low .268 OBP → It's only when a team hits hard or barrels at a high rate where the defense can't save him and his last start against PIT was a prime example: their 1st in HH% to lefties → TBR is 30th in HH% & BRL% to LHP this season Expect heavy amounts of 4-Seams, Sliders and the occasional Curveball TB hold negative BRV/100's to lefty 4-Seams, positive to Sliders, and Curveballs: → 4-Seams holding a .200xBA/.278xwOBA | 35HH% → Sliders w/a .181xBA/.241xwOBA | 21HH% With these metrics, it's more up to the defense to keep his balls in play damage to a minimum which has been easier @ home reflected by his home splits of 6.6 IP/g & 6 IP in 4/5 games with 3.6HA/g & 3.06xERA (-2.38 from overall) | UNIQLO Field is 20th in Park Factor

Monday MLB Play of the Day ☢️ Nick Martinez O5.5 HA (-110 MGM) ❤️ 100 LIKES FOR ANOTHER PICK No matter how you filter the Dodgers, L7, L14, L30 or SZN → They are T6th in BA. However they have been hot recently with the addition of Mookie and Andy Pages higher up in the order Over the L30 days, LAD are 1st in xBA (.275) & OBP which is enough but they are 2nd in BRV while 1st in BRV-Leveraged which means they seeing pitchers very well with runners on → Nick has a low 4.1BB% this year which is ELITE and helps keep his PA's to either hit or outs rather than walks, however that high of a zone rate comes at a cost. In the same stretch of time, LAD are 16th in called strikes% which implies they are not aggressive in the zone but hold the 2nd highest xBA inside with the 8th hardest hit rate Nick will see 7 LHHs → he does hold a lower .255xBA to them primarily because of his Changeup which holds a 34whiff rate/.196xBA → But the Dodgers are 8th in BRV, 8th in HH% and 9th in xBA against it → He also throws an elevated Sinker which the Dodgers crush → Regardless you don't want a lefty platoon of Dodger At-Bats which consists of Shohei, Freeman, Muncy, tucker. I Love Andy Pages against him today to get O1.5TB as well (he crushes Changeups/Cutters TBR had a bullpen day yesterday against the Angels and Nick will likely see a full 5 innings for action to accrue

My Favorite Knicks Over for the Finals 🏀 Jalen Brunson O2.5 Rebounds (-169 BetOnline) ❤️ 100 LIKES FOR MY THIRD PICK I never play something this juiced this but am still fine with risking 1.2-1.27 units to profit 0.7 units on a play that hasnt missed a single time in this matchup over the last 2 seasons, despite being -169 I think this is mispriced and should be closer to -250. Jalen Brunson is OVER this line in 7/7 games vs Wemby and the Spurs over the last 2 seasons, averaging 4.6 rebounds per game and recording 6-10 rebound chances in all 7 games (9, 10 & 10 in the Finals) - In games with the starters active and 6-10 rebound chances he clears this line at a 88% rate, averaging 4.1 rebounds (93% with 7-10 chances). Once again, mispriced, even the 5th best odds @ -182 imply a 64.5% probability of hitting, which is not the case and clearly much higher here.

My NBA Finals Play of the Day ☢️ Devin Vassell O19.5 PRA (-115 B365) ❤️ 100 LIKES FOR MY SECOND PICK Another one im running back after the Knicks didnt execute on defense last game which ruined the read. NYK Head Coach Mike Brown after Game 3: "We allowed them to live in our paint. Castle got to the paint at will, almost every pick and roll he played. Not only that, we talked about taking away the vertical threat of Wemby. He had probably seven lob dunks because we didn't follow attention to detail in trying to take that away." The Knicks have to take away the easy points in the paint which they did in Games 1 & 2 that they won, expecting better attention to detail after their home loss and forcing outside shots which will benefit players like Devin Vassell who has covered this line vs the Knicks in 4 out of 5 games this season, averaging 22.4 PRAs WHO IS WINNING GAME 4 ?? ⬇️