Bitcoin Quantile Framework โฎ Math Models
Joined September 2020
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Jun 5
Honored to be giving a keynote at the Prague Bitcoin Conference about the Bitcoin Quantile Framework and the Saylor Curve, as well as a panel presentation.
This is the first Bitcoin conference I've ever been to, and I'll be showing my face.
If you can make it, come say hi!
I'll be the 6'6, jacked dude ๐คฃ
Use Promo Code: C for a 10% discount when you register. June 11-13.
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Jun 4
If you are cheering for the 4-year cycle to play out again, you are cheering against Bitcoin.
The 4-year cycle is one of the worst things long-term for Bitcoin's adoption and reaching its true potential as a global asset.
If Bitcoin is perceived as a speculative asset that follows some magical 4-year cycle, it will remain a sideshow speculative asset.
For Bitcoin to remain something that everyone sells or trades every 4 years for no reason other than that 4 years have passed is a horrible narrative.
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Jun 4
Also, I've said this same idea many times over the last 4 to 5 months on the weekly show I do.
I've been very consistent that I don't think the 4-year cycle is a good narrative for Bitcoin, at least not as one of its dominant narratives.
The point is I've said this many times, so it has nothing to do with how things look now or with trying to change narratives.
To frame it that way isn't fair.
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Jun 4
To be clear: I'm not trying to shift any narratives, and I have no problem being wrong.
If Bitcoin bottoms out at 60% in Q4 of 2026, I'll be the first to admit I was wrong.
I've been saying for a while now that we'd have a 50% to 60% correction, not the 80% we saw in the past.
So far that's been right, but we're also less than halfway through the year.
I make bold calls based on what I truly believe makes the most logical sense.
If I am wrong, I will be the first to admit that.
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Jun 4
To be clear, my opinions have not changed.
Business cycle > halving cycle.
The business cycle has still not gotten over 55 and has still not passed the clear expansion-cycle threshold, not to mention that historically there is a 1-3 month lag once it does.
So the jury is still out on whether Bitcoin follows the business cycle, and to what degree it is correlated. We are talking about high-timeframe correlated cycles, not short-term moves.
Everyone talks about this 4-year halving cycle, but there is no way to know if they are simply talking about the business cycle, which has also followed a 4-year cycle for the last few cycles.
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Jun 4
A $3,000 bounce off its 24-hour low of $61,336, did Bitcoin just wick down to a double-bottom capitulation, similar to the $59,000โ$60,000 capitulation low from almost exactly four months ago?
If this $61,336 low holds and Bitcoin can reclaim $70,000, the odds of the bottom being in would rise significantly.
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Jun 4
New Bitcoin Uncharted!
We cover a ton in 25 minutes, including a deep dive into the new Saylor Curve dashboard.
๐จ New episode of Bitcoin Uncharted ๐จ
@TheRealPlanC & I mapped out the worst-case scenario for Bitcoin, critical liquidation levels to watch, and a deep dive into his brand-new model:
The Saylor Curve ๐๐
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Jun 1
The early expansionary cycle signs continue.
ISM PMI > 50 for 5 straight months now.
Bitcoin will follow soon.
ISM PMI prints 54 for May, exceeding the forecast of 53. Great news.
Historically we need to head above ~55 to set the stage for Bitcoin fireworks ๐.
Also
โ
๏ธ Prices came down
โ
๏ธ Employment came up
โ
๏ธ New orders came up
tradingeconomics.com/united-โฆ
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May 30
Really appreciate the shout-out from Ben!
Asymmetric Tail Curvature = Decay Function Fit for top quantiles.
100% must!
Sminston, myself and now Ben all agree.
Sminston and myself have been modeling the decay of the upper quantiles for a while, and for sure the roughly top half of the quantile distribution does not follow a power law, it follows a decay function.
Debatable which type of decay function is optimal.
I have done a lot of research on this front, and the following are some of the top contenders:
- Gaussian decay
- Logistic decay
- Exponential decay
- Weibull decay
May 30
This work is just an extension of the power law work by @Giovann35084111, the upper and lower tail regression fit I did back in 2020, and the recent work done by @TheRealPlanC on price quantiles. I just simply extend the work to asymmetric tails by letting upper and lower tails have separately estimated curvatures (b_HI vs b_LO) and showing the asymmetry ฮb = โ0.302 is statistically significant.
Would recommend following both of them
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May 27
New Bitcoin Uncharted!
Bitcoin is no longer a retail game. The landscape has fundamentally shifted. Wall Street is rewriting the playbook, absorbing supply, and pricing out smaller players.
On this week's Bitcoin Uncharted, @TheRealPlanC @sminston_with and I break down this massive institutional takeover.
Is the retail era officially over?
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May 23
Bitcoin holding key support, not random.
Very positive that Bitcoin bounced at $74,500.
Support from April 2025, is $74,500 to $76,000.
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May 21
Breaking Bitcoin News ๐๏ธ
U.S. Rep. Nick Begich (R-AK) just formally introduced the American Reserves Modernization Act (ARMA) in the House, co-led with Rep. Jared Golden (D-ME) and 16 bipartisan co-sponsors.
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May 21
New Bitcoin Uncharted!
Short and sweet 20-minute episode,
we get right to it.
Saylor is buying billions in Bitcoin every single week.
So why is the price moving sideways? ๐ค
In the latest episode of Bitcoin Uncharted, @TheRealPlanC and I break down Strategyโs massive buy wall isnโt triggering immediate green candles.
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May 21
In retrospect, it will be obvious.
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May 20
Very positive that we bounced at $76,000.
Support from April 2025, is $74,500 to $76,000.
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May 18
Bitcoin / Saylor: Very Important Point
I would love to have someone give their best argument for how Bitcoin can go below $50,000.
Michael Saylor literally has a USD printer that he can turn on and control the flow rate.
Think about it. If Bitcoin were to go to $60,000 for a few weeks or a few months, which, to be clear is not my base case, Saylor could increase the STRC interest rate to 12% and buy 25k to 50k Bitcoin weekly.
If Bitcoin somehow were to go to $50,000, he could increase the STRC interest rate to 13% and buy 50,000 to 100,000 Bitcoin in one week, and keep doing that until the price recovers.
Increasing the interest rate by another 0.5% to 1.5% would be more than justified if he could load up on $50,000 to $60,000 Bitcoin, lower his cost basis, and increase his future capital gains.
The money would come back to him in multiples versus the interest paid.
And don't forget, STRC is a variable rate, so he would always drop back to 11.5% in 3 to 6 months once the price recovers.
I'm not making an opinion on whether it's a good thing that a single entity can set the floor by ramping up its money printing temporarily.
It's just the reality and the math of the situation for anyone who hasn't connected the dots yet. Saylor is all in, and he has many levers he can pull now to support the price and essentially set the floor.
The longer Bitcoin trades at discounted levels, and the deeper the discount, the more he will load up, and the more he is incentivized to do so.
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May 18
There is a natural limit on how high Saylor can go.
At 15% the market would most likely get spooked, and beyond 14% would most likely do more damage than good, but anywhere from 10% to 14% seems like a reasonable range he can toggle within.
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May 18
A buy-only bid for 25k to 100k Bitcoin weekly absolutely would help set the floor over months.
There are only so many Bitcoin to be sold, and you are telling me in 10 weeks if someone bought 250k to 1M Bitcoin it would not affect the price or help create a floor?
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