ALT Base Hit candidates are generated using a pitch-by-pitch matchup model that blends batter and pitcher tendencies. We calculate expected batting average (xBA) across pitch types and locations, weighted by pitcher usage, then adjust for swing-and-miss risk using a whiff-based penalty. The model also incorporates recent performance to reflect current form, not just season-long averages. Final Hit % represents the probability of recording at least one hit based on contact quality, pitch mix, and matchup dynamics.

ALT Extra Base Hit candidates build off the same matchup model, with added emphasis on power potential. We calculate expected slugging (xSLG) and isolate power (xISO) by blending batter performance with pitcher tendencies across pitch type and location, weighted by usage. After adjusting for whiff risk, XBH probability is derived from a player’s ability to convert contact into extra bases relative to total slugging output. This highlights hitters with both strong contact quality and high-impact power in their specific matchup.